Forbes Not Kind to Florida's Pro Franchises

Forbes’ 2019 list of the world’s most-valuable sports franchises is an embarrassment of riches, from the top-ranked Dallas Cowboys to the 50th-ranked New Orleans Saints. But you’ll be hard-pressed to find Florida teams on the list.

Just two of the nine major pro teams to call Florida home made this year’s list: the Miami Dolphins, 33rd in the world with an estimated value of $2.6 billion; and the Jacksonville Jaguars, 49th in the world with an estimated value of $2.1 billion.

Not a single one of Tampa Bay’s three major franchises made the top-50 list, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranked 12th in the world back in 2010.

More bad news for the Bucs’ owners, the Glazers: their Manchester United franchise was one of only two in this year’s top-50 to lose value from 2018. Forbes estimated ManU was down 8% from last year to a $3.8 billion valuation in 2019, sixth in the world overall.

ManU was the first franchise in the world to crack the $3 billion mark back in 2013, but it hasn’t enjoyed a smooth ride in recent years under the Glazers, even as franchise values soar across-the-board due to lucrative media deals.

It’s not likely the Glazers are hurting, however, as Forbes last fall estimated the Buccaneers - even as one of the NFL’s least-valuable franchises - were worth an even $2 billion.

The Cowboys topped Forbes’ 2019 list at $5 billion, with the New York Yankees and Real Madrid following at $4.6 billion and $4.2 billion, respectively.

A $2 billion valuation, enough to top the Forbes’ list in 2012, no longer makes the cut. Even teams without much of a track record of winning are raking in the profits; the Arizona Cardinals, Brooklyn Nets, and Oakland Raiders all surpassed $2.1 billion valuations this year.

Other Florida franchises have seen their Forbes estimates grow as well: the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins were valued at $1B each earlier this year, 29th and 30th in MLB, respectively; the Miami Heat ($1.8B) and Orlando Magic ($1.3B) were the NBA’s 10th- and 23rd-most valuable franchises, respectively; while the Tampa Bay Lightning ($445M) and Florida Panthers ($295M) were the NHL’s 21st and 30th-most valuable franchises, respectively.

Every Florida team is believed to be worth significantly more than it was when it was last sold.

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Can Stu Sternberg shed title of Tampa Bay’s least-favorite franchise owner?

With his pitch to cut short the Rays’ tenure in Tropicana Field and start summering in Montreal, Stu Sternberg solidified his place atop the region’s rankings of least-favorite franchise owners.

It’s a title that, earlier in the decade, was firmly held by the Glazer family, who allowed Buccaneers games to be blacked-out as Raheem Morris – and then Greg Schiano – turned the once-proud franchise into cellar-dwellers.

Clearly, Lightning owner Jeff Vinik doesn’t belong in this conversation, as he’s achieved a Mark Cuban/Bob Kraft-level of reverence in his adopted hometown.

Vinik could probably get caught in an illicit Kennedy Avenue massage parlor and still get anything he wanted from city and county officials.

So how did Sternberg – once celebrated as the Wall Street whiz kid who transformed a sad Tampa Bay expansion team into a pennant-winner – become so vilified? It didn’t happen overnight.

It likely started with the “if you don’t build it, they won’t come” attitude he took toward a new ballpark shortly after buying a controlling interest in the Rays in 2005. He planted seeds that Tropicana Field was an unfit place to watch baseball.

Sternberg certainly wasn’t the first to suggest it, and many fans probably agreed; but ever since he pulled his waterfront stadium plan off the table in 2008, Sternberg hasn’t been willing to put his money where his mouth is on a new ballpark.

He developed a reputation of trying to squeeze money out of the community, and his now-decade-old self-fulfilling prophecy that nobody wants to watch games at the Trop turned Sternberg, once a sympathetic character, into a scorned one.

In 2011, Rays historian (yes, there is such a thing) Jonah Keri wrote, “If you go to a restaurant and the waiter keeps insulting you and even insulting the restaurant, you’re going to stop going.”

He was right: after 10 years of Sternberg’s stadium campaigning, Rays fans stopped going to the Trop, as attendance steadily dropped from 23,148 in 2009 to 14,259 in 2018. 
What else explains a 38% decline in attendance during a decade where the team remained outstanding, Tampa Bay’s population and corporate base both grew, the economy got stronger, tickets remained reasonably-priced, and teenage Rays fans matured into young adults with disposable income?

You can’t blame traffic for the huge declines; yes, I-275 has issues, but the area also saw major improvements to Gandy Boulevard, the I-4 interchange, and I-275 in Pinellas County.

So the only real explanation for the major drop in attendance – and Sternberg’s drop in popularity – is his negative attitude toward playing in St. Petersburg and fans who choose to agree with him and watch from home instead.

Sternberg insulted the restaurant – and its patrons – a few too many times.

But wait, then 2019 happened!

Even following his wildly-unpopular Montreal snowbird idea, Sternberg is seeing fans come back to the Trop. It may have taken $2 ticket offers and an early playoff exit from his typical summer entertainment competition, the Lightning … but the Rays’ 2019 attendance has ticked up to 15,520 per game.

In a year where MLB has seen an overall 2% drop in attendance, the Rays are seeing 4% growth from the same time last year and a 9% uptick from their end-of-2018 numbers.

Meanwhile, the team continues to win, ensuring their games at the Trop will remain relevant into the fall.

Just as Sternberg’s vilification didn’t happen overnight, his revival won’t be immediate either. But give him credit for continuing to put a winning product on the field in baseball’s most competitive division, as well as bringing (some) fans back to the ballpark in 2019.

Can Sternberg continue to offer deals to Rays fans, downplay his desires to leave, and climb out of Tampa Bay’s team-owner doghouse? Absolutely.

But the real question is, does he want to?

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Why USF Won't Follow UCF's Lead on a Campus Stadium

USF's new president, Steve Currall, dealt a dose of reality last week to football fans hoping for a new on-campus stadium. 

Currall was lukewarm at-best about the potential of a new home, saying a football stadium was "a vision...not a plan," in comments detailed by the Tampa Bay Times' Matt Baker and Megan Reeves.

That's because, even in the heart of football country, money matters - and a new stadium costs loads of it.

Baker's Monday article triggered a predictable cycle of chuckles from the UCF Mafia on Twitter. But Knights fans should check themselves - Currall isn't wrong in how he's playing the hand he's been dealt, even if it means many more years playing nearly a dozen miles from campus.

It's easy for UCF fans to throw stones when they're enjoying a historic run on the gridiron, filling their 44,000-seat on-campus stadium every Saturday. And the Bulls, who once surged to No. 2 in the nation in 2007 and filled the majority of Raymond James Stadium for a good five years, have fallen on tough times.

Yet the two schools are remarkable close on the scoreboard that most university presidents really care about: finances.

Neither UCF nor USF is in great shape when it comes to their athletics budget, as they strain to keep pace with teams in high-revenue conferences. Both the Knights and the Bulls balance their budgets on the backs of students, as well as general booster funds, that would otherwise go toward academic purposes, to close their remaining budget deficits.

UCF is moving in the right direction by growing its booster donations, season ticket base, and game-day revenues, as it's "if you build it, they will come" approach toward an on-campus stadium has been slowly working. But the debt payments on Spectrum Stadium have limited the financial impact of the team's recent success.

USF has similar goals to boost revenue through attendance and donor growth, but instead of using a new stadium to advance their efforts, USF is risking its future with a page out of its old playbook: trying to reignite its base with upsets over ranked teams.

The Bulls have agreed to a series of 2-for-1 series with top programs, such as Alabama and Texas, where USF will play its bigger, wealthier opponents twice on the road in exchange for just a single game at home. USF, hoping to one day join those foes in a high-revenue conference, sees the short-term price well worth the potential long-term payoff.

UCF Nation absolutely hates USF for it.

Knights fans, as well as their athletic director, have been critical of 2-for-1 series, saying they shouldn't have to make a sacrifice to play high-revenue teams. Many have suggested USF should be above it too.

Each school has a right to its own strategy, but at the end of the day, they each need to find a way to boost their revenues...significantly. The risk of not doing so has been realized by UConn, which will leave the American Athletic Conference in 2020 for what it hopes are greener ($$) pastures in the Big East.

USF's new president knows this. He knows money rules in college sports. He also knows building stadiums isn't necessarily the best way to make money.

“I was just talking to the commissioner of the AAC (last week) on the phone about a number of topics, but they all always involve TV rights...that, frankly, has a big financial impact” Currall said, according to Monday's Times article.

That's why you're more likely to see USF change its coaches, conference, or even logo before you see it change its home football stadium.

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Yes, the Rays' Stadium Campaign is Following the Same Blueprint of Every Other Stadium Campaign

Expect a tug-of-war: first between two local communities, then two communities separated by thousands of miles. Blogs, petitions, editorials, and maybe even a full-page ad or two. Anger. Heartbreak...all things the Tampa Bay area has to look forward to...as the Rays lobby for a new state-of-the-art baseball stadium.

I first wrote that paragraph ten years ago, in my July 3, 2009 column, "How the Rays Stadium Saga Will Go Down."  A decade later, it's clear not much has changed.

I acknowledged at the time the post was speculative, but also that I had covered enough bare-knuckles stadium shakedowns to know the playbook pro owners all seem to count on  So how did that 2009 column hold up?

Let's take a look, with my 2019 comments in bold:

July 3, 2009=============
Every time a team wants a new ballpark, it starts planting seeds that it cannot field a competitive team in its current digs (Rays got this out of the way in the 1990s).

When people start believing the team actually could be competitive at its current site - both on-the-field and at the box office - the team drops more hints that attendance could/should still be better (see Rays' 2008 campaign).

When people start believing that a new ballpark could make a difference in attendance, the team commissions a study to "analyze" the feasibility of staying put. The Red Sox did it, the Marlins did it, and the Rays did it this June.
Ten years later, Rays owner Stu Sternberg swore his "sister city" split-season pitch was "not a page out of a playbook" and that he likes to be different.  Except, for the last 10 years, almost every move the Rays have made off-the-field, including a half-dozen relocation threats, has been out of the standard "build leverage for stadium subsidies" playbook.

The study - predictably - concludes it's not feasible to stay at current location long-term.  That takes us to the present point in time, where we await a new study from the ABC Coalition that will analyze where a new stadium would be best-placed. There really isn't much suspense here...the foregone conclusion is that a stadium in - or very close - to Hillsborough County will draw more fans than the current location in somewhat-remote downtown St. Petersburg.Later in 2009, that ABC Coalition report affirmed the foregone conclusion that Downtown St. Petersburg, at the time a less-desirable live-work-play destination than it is now, was too remote of a location for most potential baseball fans. 


Disclaimer #2: I love watching the Rays play. I think they've grown a great base here and need to stay here. I think they mean a lot of money to the local economy...but I don't think anyone knows exactly how much that is.
In 2008, the Rays commissioned a study that indicated their impact was $122 million per year at the time, then later suggested their true impact was closer to $200 million.  Not only were economists quick to dispute those figures, but the Rays were too.  In 2013, one team executive suggested St. Petersburg should let the team explore leaving because they were hurting the city's economy. Go figure.


Once the ABC Coalition releases its findings on location, the Rays may finally admit that they don't hate The Trop; they hate playing in downtown St. Pete. That's when things will really get fun.
That moment came in June 2010, when Sternberg shifted his explanation of poor attendance from the facility to the facility's location.


The team will continue to drop hints that it needs a new home at a new place. Grass-root efforts will pop up. Fan groups - on both sides of the bay - will start rallying the troops.
Over the last decade, stadium support groups have included the Clutch Hitters, Top Off the Trop, Build it Downtown Tampa, Baseball Forever St. Pete, and most recently, the not-so-grass-roots group, Tampa Bay Rays 2020.


Since the team's current contract with St. Pete doesn't expire anytime soon, Tampa may not happen. However, since St. Pete and Pinellas Co. could work out a deal to tear up the current lease and sign a new one long-term, the Gateway area (near the bay bridges) will start to become the most realistic location.
Former Mayor Bill Foster offered to let the Rays explore the Gateway/Mid-Pinellas area shortly after he was elected in the fall of 2009. But despite the robust tax revenues available to fund a ballpark in that region, the Rays said they wouldn't even consider it until they could explore Tampa first. Years later, the Rays were still exploring and several Pinellas possibilities near the bay bridges were developed without considerations for baseball.


The public will scoff at the cost ($470M?). The team will become more poignant that it needs help from the community to survive. Execs will "remind" us that they aren't so much a private business, but an integral and beloved part of the community. The Red Sox did it, the Marlins (hilariously) did it, and the Rays will do it.
That $470 million projection in 2009 grew with inflation and construction prices to the $892 million sticker-shock figure the team estimated in 2018. But the Rays have relentlessly campaigned that they are part of the fabric of Tampa Bay's community, and they have amplified their case that they need community support ($$) to stick around.


The team will re-affirm its commitment to stay in the area, but it won't be shy about its need for a new park.  The public will still scoff at the cost.
Check. Check. Check.


It will be right about that time a high-ranking team executive (Stuart Sternberg? Matthew Silverman? Stadium Czar Michael Kalt?) will take a trip to Charlotte. Or Portland. Or some other MLB-starved city.  A trip like that would normally go under-the-radar, but a well-placed call to someone like Peter Gammons or Rob Neyer will drop the tip that the Rays are exploring other communities.Sternberg started talking to Montreal, and it was a well-placed call to ESPN's Jeff Passan that ensured one little tip would fuel more than a week's worth of stadium talk.


Why? Because teams don't get free stadiums unless two cities are competing for their services. The blogs, editorials, and letters to the editor will fire up again. Local politicians will get nervous. One leader - maybe a Pinellas Co. Commissioner or a St. Pete City Councilman? - will decide his/her legacy will be keeping the Rays in Tampa Bay.
This turned out to be Hillsborough County Commissioner Ken Hagan.


He/she will fire up more grass-root efforts to save the team. Expect more petitions, rallies, and forums.
Hagan has spent an enormous amount of time and effort collaborating with developers and business leaders to make an Ybor stadium happen.  Some in the Tampa community have followed his lead, while others in St. Petersburg have vilified him.


Fans in Charlotte (or Portland, etc.) will launch similar grass-root efforts to show their interest in a team. The Rays will kick back and let the scenario run its course.
So far, it's happened in Portland and Montreal.  The Rays wouldn't mind if another city or two joined in too.


Baseball fans will fight stadium-haters. City leaders will battle their counterparts in other municipalities. Columnists will stir the pot with provocative headlines. The war will be waged on newsprint, on the airwaves, and of course, online.
We saw a three-year civil war in Tampa, with baseball boosters fighting subsidy critics in their own backyard, as columnists and sports talk hosts fanned the flames.


And while it will be a war of public opinion, the Rays - mark my words - will NEVER let the issue go to public referendum. After seeing a public stadium vote fail (for a modest $16M price tag) in Sarasota, they won't risk letting the people of Tampa Bay decide their $470M fate. (The Bucs won their referendum in a different era - there is no comparison.)
Still true.


Private investors will join the fight, offering up their money, land, and services to help the area keep the team.
See above notes on Ybor City.


The "donations" won't be nearly enough to cover the cost of a new stadium, but it will be enough to give the impression that the people of Pinellas County are willing to buck up to keep the economic engine in-town.
There were lots of developers who wanted to be involved in the Ybor stadium project, but as predicted, none of them wanted to finance an actual stadium that someone else would profit off. 

 
When the public still scoffs at the cost of a new stadium, the team casually reminds fans that while they are a beloved part of community, they could be a beloved part of someone else's community.
Check.


More trips to the second city follow. The Rays will acknowledge publicly that they are talking to another city. After all, the owners aren't from here - they aren't committed to staying in a town that's not committed to them.
To Sternberg's credit, he has continued to say he wants to be in Tampa Bay long-term. But he also hasn't been afraid to continuously flirt with the idea of relocation.


More local politicians start feeling the heat and get legitimately scared the team will leave.
That's where we are today.


That's where the blueprint ends.  What happens from here? Tough to say. Still tough to say. 

Every professional franchise uses these steps to try and leverage a new, free stadium. The results vary but often depend on two things: the economy and the volume of the voices of the stadium cheerleaders.  Those voices aren't loud yet, but when people REALLY get scared the team may leave - and it always reaches that climax - you won't be able to tune them out.
And that's why the Rays are trying to reach that climax before the economy slows down again.  However, they're still feeling the impact of anti-subsidy sentiment left over from the Great Recession, which was magnified by the Marlins' well-publicized fleecing of Florida.  That's made Sternberg's subsidy campaign deciding uphill.

So the next time you think Sternberg is making major stadium news, realize it's probably not the climax of a ten-year soap opera.  In fact, in the last decade, not much has changed at all in the stadium saga except the volume of some voices. 

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