Monday, May 18, 2015

MUST-READ: Baseball Isn't Dying, It's Simply Growing Out of the Ballpark

You've got to take three minutes to read Maury Brown's latest over on Forbes.  The short, but interesting article details how more and more fans - in all baseball cities - are choosing to watch the games on TV.

An excerpt:
Wednesday was a playoff bevy for sports fans with playoffs in both the NBA and NHL, and a great baseball game nationally, but in 14 of 24 markets, it was not hockey or basketball or even that Mets-Cubs that people were watching, but Major League Baseball on their local regional sports networks.

In a sign that baseball continues to be a regional phenomenon, from Cincinnati to Seattle, Boston to Tampa Bay, Baltimore to St. Louis, and more, it was regular season baseball games that crushed all comers in their respective markets over the NBA and NHL playoffs, as well as the nationally televised MLB game on ESPN.
...
Remember, baseball isn’t dying. It’s simply becoming more of a regional draw.
Maybe the most amazing discovery in the article is that a higher percentage of Tampa Bay households were watching sports last Wednesday than households in Boston...and the Rays game drew a higher rating than the Red Sox (and many other MLB teams in their home markets).
CLARIFICATION: The Sox played at 3:05pm that day, which explains their lower-than-normal viewership.

No matter what, Brown's post is an encouraging read for a Rays fan...certainly more than Dick Vitale's sad interview on Trop attendance or all the rumormongering that will stem from next week's meeting between MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre.



FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Tweet of the Week

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Here We Go Again...

Players have a history of Tweeting their disappointment with Rays attendance, but it often gets deleted.  So in case Archer's Tweet gets deleted, here's a screengrab from 1:12pm:

For what it's worth, I was at the game last night too, and 12,000 tickets sold didn't seem to result in 12,000 butts in the seat...

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Times Loves Corporations That Share Wealth; Except for Maybe Pro Sports Teams

Sometimes living in Florida feels like living in the Twilight Zone.

This week, conservative governor Rick Scott is advocating for-profit hospitals share their profits "like Major League Baseball teams" to help support hospitals that treat the poor.

That prompted the Tampa Bay Times to write a half-sarcastic editorial calling Scott, "Florida's Socialist Governor," suggesting all the private enterprises profiting off Floridians (utilities, insurance companies, charter schools, etc.) should also share and kick some of the profits back to the taxpayer.

But for some reason, the Times didn't mention all the pro sports teams that profit off Florida taxpayers.

ALSO READ: Times Hates Corporate Welfare; Except for Maybe Pro Sports Teams 

The Times editorial board loves the idea of corporations sharing their wealth with taxpayers like MLB teams do with each other...just as long as those corporations aren't MLB teams themselves.




FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

No Good, Just Bad and Ugly on Rays Attendance Numbers

Last night, the Rays fell to the Yankees, 11-5...with the worst stat of the game the attendance number.  The Rays sold just 10,619 tickets to the game, the smallest number ever for a Yanks game in Tampa Bay.

It's bad.

The Rays are averaging just 16,295 fans per game, a drop of nearly 2,500 from approximately the same time last year, when they hadn't hosted nearly as many games yet against the likes of Boston and New York. That also doesn't even count the lackluster crowds at the relocated Baltimore games, which will count against the Orioles' home attendance numbers.

Part of the issue has to do with the deep Lightning playoff run and the region's lack of disposable income.
Part of the issue has to do with lack of interest in seeing Rays and the team's self-fulfilling prophecy.
Part of the issue has to do with the fact that so many people are watching the Rays on TV.
Part of the issue has to do with the team holding the line on ticket prices and declining to offer deep discounts.

No matter what the cause(s), it's going to continue to get ugly.  Between May 8 and July 14 last year, the Rays' average attendance fell another 1,900 fans per game.

FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

The silver linings: this Wednesday is the annual "Top Off the Trop" night, where fans are encouraged to pack the stadium - even if its just one night - to show the region truly does care.  I'll be there as a paying fan with some of my 10 News colleagues, doing our part to boost the average attendance numbers one at a time.




Friday, May 8, 2015

Six Years of "Shadow of the Stadium"

A very self-indulgent happy anniversary to this blog, which today celebrates six years of blogging, analyzing, offering perspective, and of course, criticizing.  Thanks to everyone for your loyal readership.

Here's a quick snapshot at some of the blog's biggest posts since launching on May 8, 2009:





FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

County Commissioner Wants Teams to Prove Fanbase Before Getting New Stadiums...Unless You're Talking About Rays

How’s this for irony?

Hillsborough Commissioner Ken Hagan, the leading cheerleader for a new Rays stadium in Tampa, said today there should be no new stadium until the team can prove it can better-fill its current stadium.  However, that team he was talking about was the USF football team.

More on that irony: just like the Rays, USF has been rumored to be exploring a stadium closer to its fan base (on-campus) because its current home, Raymond James Stadium, lacks the proximity and atmosphere of its peers.

But when those rumors of USF exploring a site across the street, where the Museum of Science and Industry (MOSI) currently sits, Hagan “admonished those salivating at potential uses for the county land.” {link to Times’ site} Steve Contorno writes:
"I know how special it is to have a stadium on campus, and I fully support looking for ways to have that occur but let's not put the cart in front of the horse," Hagan said. "In my opinion, their performance and attendance must drastically improve before we can seriously talk about a stadium."

That drew scorn from Commissioner Victor Crist, who said Hagan's ongoing efforts to bring the Tampa Bay Rays to Hillsborough County undermined his argument.

"As far as athletics, well, that's not my venue, but one thing I do know is Mr. Hagan, you've been pushing for baseball, and frankly they haven't filled their seats, either," said Crist, a USF alumnus. "So the argument that USF football has empty seats I think is an unfounded one."

Hagan retorted that Crist was right: "Athletics is not your purview."
Of course, USF had little to say about the commission spat, but Athletic Director Mark Harlan has indicated an on-campus football stadium is on his long-term radar.

I've gone in-depth over the years about the budget woes of the USF athletic department.  In fact, the department had to take a loan out from the school's general revenue funds to balance its 2014 budget.





FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

You Can Now Get Shadow of the Stadium Posts Delivered to Your Inbox

Love Shadow of the Stadium?  Or just love to hate Shadow of the Stadium?

Either way, there's good news - you can now be the first to read the latest posts as I'm launching an email version of this site.

The posts will be the same as you find online, but for those of you who prefer having your dinner served to you on a silver platter (rather than having to go scrounge for it on The Internets), this will be a nice alternative.
You'll still be able to get most Shadow of the Stadium headlines via Twitter, Facebook, or RSS feeds.  And of course, you can unsubscribe anytime.

But take a quick second to add your email to ensure you don't miss a single piece of important Rays stadium and Florida sports business news!
(then check your spam folder to make sure the confirmation email went through!)




New Study Says Tampa Bay's Sports Market is Already Over-Extended

Thanks to @TBBaseballMkt for passing along a good update to the disposable income issues this blog has tracked for years.

The Tampa Bay Business Journal's network composed a list of 83 North American markets and their abilities support new - or their existing - sports teams, based on personal income levels in the market.

I used a 2011 study to write why the Rays wouldn't be moving to frequently-mentioned cities such as Nashville or Portland since the markets were already over-extended.  The 2015 version of the study indicates they still couldn't support a new team (just like Charlotte, San Antonio, Indianapolis, etc).

On the other end of the spectrum, the study suggests Montreal would be MLB's most logical expansion/relocation market.  Its available income in the immediate metro area suggests the city could afford to support a MLB team in addition to its existing NHL and MLS franchises.

FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

This study is not without flaws - it defines the Tampa Bay market too narrowly, for instance.  It didn't include Sarasota (and presumably Manatee County), even though many of the residents there can reach the Trop in 15-30 minutes.

But the study suggests Tampa Bay is running a personal income deficit and cannot afford to support three major sports teams.  It's certainly not the first time questions about the market's pro sports capacity have come up and you can count that it won't be the last either.

As TBBJ's Wade Tyler Millward writes, MLB could potentially improve its situation by moving the Rays to franchise-poor markets with available income such as Las Vegas, Hartford, or Virginia Beach:
Mexico City and Havana are possibilities if MLB tries to expand into Latin America. Last year, 23 percent of players came from Latin America, mainly from Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Cuba. MLB has not pursued this option because of income disparity between North America and the rest of the hemisphere, Thomas said.

New York-New Jersey and Los Angeles-Anaheim residents make enough to support a third MLB franchise, but the reality of existing teams protesting more competition makes those areas a slim chance. Their residents make, respectively, $787 billion and $345 billion more than is needed to support their major sport teams.





Thursday, April 30, 2015

Why the Relocation of the Rays/Orioles Series May Hurt Both Team's Attendance Numbers

The Rays and Orioles will make the best of a bad situation this weekend by playing the O's three home games at Tropicana Field, a move necessitated by the unrest in Baltimore.

Fans can buy general admission tickets to the games in St. Pete for just $15, but with poor notice and so many other sporting events going on this week (Kentucky Derby, NFL Draft, Lightning Playoffs), I'm not sure any of the games will crack the 10,000 fan mark.

From what I understand, the games will count toward the Orioles' attendance numbers, which already dropped from 33,288 per game (9th in MLB) to 29,960 per game (15th in MLB) after their record-breaking fan-less matinee on Wednesday. 

But aside from the impending impact on the O's May numbers, the relocated series could also impact the Rays' official attendance over the next few months.

UPDATE: TBO's Roger Mooney reports the attendance will count toward the Rays' home average attendance numbers, which will certainly suffer from the short-notice relocation.
UPDATE 2: The Rays say player stats will count as Rays home stats, but Mooney was wrong on the attendance; the gate stats will - in fact - count as an Orioles home game.  You can see the numbers reflected in the most recent MLB attendance standings, where the Orioles slumped to 19th.

Because many individuals/families only attend a few Rays games each year, there's a good chance a game this weekend could be the only trip many fans make to The Trop for several more months.  That could limit the Rays' official attendance numbers even more.

Even if the Trop sold out this weekend, the Orioles get to keep profits from the gate (although I'm not sure about concessions, parking, etc).

Of course, these are just minor footnotes to a series relocation necessitated by unexpected national events.  But hey, at least St. Petersburg will get three bonus games to capture some of that MLB economic impact!

UPDATE 3: Mooney also reports the Orioles will have to stay in Tampa because of the short notice; Stu Sternberg said the team is happy to spread the love!

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Are Fans Tiring of Stadium Saga? You Bet They Are!

We've seen a lot of talk lately about the Rays' poor start at the box office and the possibilities of Stadium Saga fatigue.  Well, prepare to see a lot more, because as I first wrote in 2010, declining attendance numbers are all but a forgone conclusion as the team's frustrating campaign for a new stadium drags on.

Just ask the Expos, whose attendance dropped to 4,000 fans many nights when MLB indicated it was done with the market.

At 18,000+ fans per night, the Rays are a long way from those Montreal lows.  And its ownership group has done less complaining about the stadium as it has done in previous years.

But what I wrote five years ago still rings true:
From my vantage point, it seems that the Rays have created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In continuing to point out problems with the Trop, the Rays (perhaps inadvertently) are building - and reinforcing - the stadium's negative image.

Why else would so many people dislike the Trop but have trouble explaining why? It's like politics. The more the issue is discussed on talk radio and on the evening news, the more people will believe it. Perception is reality.
And, in a separate post from 2009, I also predicted the team would "re-affirm its commitment to stay in the area, but it won't be shy about its need for a new park."  The post also included:
It will be right about that time a high-ranking team executive (Stuart Sternberg? Matthew Silverman? Stadium Czar Michael Kalt?) will take a trip to Charlotte.  Or Portland.  Or some other MLB-starved city.  A trip like that would normally go under-the-radar, but a well-placed call to someone like Peter Gammons or Rob Neyer will drop the tip that the Rays are exploring other communities.
By the way, great minds must think alike, since Gary Shelton wrote last week, "You know how it will work. Stu Sternberg will show up at an exhibition game in Montreal. There is no funny business, he’ll say. He just wanted to see a ballgame. Then a team official will be seen in Charlotte. Or Las Vegas. Or somewhere."

The Rays are continuing down the path they set out on in 2010 when Sternberg gave the region an ultimatum and essentially demanded St. Petersburg amend its contract.  He created a self-fulfilling prophecy, and the only real change in the Stadium Saga since then has been in the attendance numbers.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Rays First Pitch Count: Tampa Mayor 4, St. Pete Mayors 1

Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn will throw out the Rays' first pitch Thursday night against the Red Sox...the fourth time he's been invited for the honor at the Trop in his four years in office.

For those of you keeping score at home, that's three more than the mayors of St. Pete have thrown in the past five years (Foster: 0; Kriseman: 1), even though the Trop is located in St. Pete.

Kriseman will probably add to his total later this year, but the news should be enough to reignite the Tampa "flirting" rumors and light up the sportstalk airwaves for a couple of days.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Why Pro Teams (in Other Cities Too) Need Your Money to Rip Out Seats

My last stadium report for WTSP, “Why pro teams need your money to rip out seats,” focused on how pro sports teams – including many in Florida – have sought tax dollars for renovation projects that drop stadium capacities. It’s often not in taxpayers’ best interests, but of course, elected leaders keep choosing to support the project anyway.

At least Floridians can take heart that it’s happening in other places too.

Field of Schemes reports how the Cleveland Indians have yanked out 7,000 seats thanks to tax subsidies…and the result is pretty ugly.

For what it’s worth, the Rays spent a few million of their own dollars last year to retrofit the Trop and remove a few thousand seats. It created the 360 concourse experience…which I wrote at the time, may increase alcohol sales enough on its own to justify the construction.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Pro Teams Want Your Tax Money So They Can Rip Out Seats (and Charge You More)

For all the talk by professional sports teams about drawing more fans to new ballparks, keeping their facilities "relevant," and "improving the fan experience," a comprehensive analysis by 10 Investigates reveals most new revenue from taxpayer-funded stadium construction projects comes not from increased attendance, but from increased ticket costs.

That means taxpayers are spending money on new sports facilities so team owners – often billionaires – can charge them more than ever before to attend the games. 

And even though taxpayers often foot the majority of stadium construction costs, the private teams and leagues keep most of the revenues, while often reducing the number of seats available. Fewer fans at a game can mean fewer jobs at the stadium as well as less economic impact in the areas surrounding the stadium.

In January, 10 Investigates showed how lawmakers keep opening state coffers wider and wider for professional sports teams and leagues, even though state economists suggest there’s little return on investment. Other findings included how pro teams often build or renovate their stadiums anyway, even when they don’t get “necessary” tax dollars, and how campaign contributions often go hand-in-hand with assistance from powerful politicians.

ALSO SEE: Gov. Rick Scott mum – again – on stadium spending

Even the applications from four pro organizations currently looking for tens of millions of dollars in tax money indicate questionable return on investment to Floridians.
The Miami Dolphins, seeking $90 million from state taxpayers over the next 30 years, acknowledge they draw fans from all over the world to major events like the Super Bowl, BCS Championship, and Orange Bowl. But they’re seeking the money as part of a renovation project that would remove 10,000 seats.

Their application indicates the team would help make up for the lower attendance with a 10% hike in ticket prices, plus “significant price increases in areas with new clubs.”

The application for Daytona International Speedway (DIS) suggested similar price hikes. Although the track didn’t specify exactly what it would be using tax dollars for, it was also seeking $90 million over 30 years toward its “Daytona Rising” renovation project that “reimagined the American Icon.” The project dropped the track’s capacity from 147,000 to 101,000.
But even with fewer fans, the track told the state it will generate more revenue. Those “increases” came largely from inflation and an estimated hike of nearly 10% in ticket prices from 2015 to 2016.

Florida’s controversial new stadium subsidy law requires applicants to prove return on investment to taxpayers, but specific exemptions were written in for the Dolphins and Daytona International Speedway, neither of which needs to show any increase in tax revenue.

READ: Daytona's application
READ: City of Orlando/MLS application
READ: City of Jacksonville/Jaguars' application
READ: Dolphins' application

The Tampa Bay Rays currently benefit from $2 million per year in state funds that help pay for Tropicana Field, but the team could apply for another $3 million per year if it were to build a new Florida stadium.

The team could potentially benefit from moving closer to the population centers of Hillsborough County, and Rays President Brian Auld recently told The Economist Club of Tampa the move – plus the presumable buzz of a new park - might eventually mean 5,000 more fans per night, which would mean $15-20 million in new revenue. But he didn’t talk about the even greater gain to be had by raising ticket, concession, and parking prices on the 17,000 fans already attending games.

When the Miami Marlins opened their new taxpayer-subsidized ballpark in 2012, average ticket prices climbed 56%. They have receded a bit with demand, but still sit 52% higher than they were in 2011, the team’s final year at its old home, Sun Life Stadium, even though 2014 attendance was only up 13% from 2011.

According to the Team Marketing Report Fan Cost Index, other costs associated with attending a Marlins game climbed with the new ballpark too. The price of beer, hot dogs, parking, programs, and ballcaps all climbed significantly after Marlins Park opened. Most of the new revenues were retained by the team, helping its overall value, as estimated by Forbes, nearly double since 2011 to $650 million.

The Fan Cost Index lists the Rays as baseball’s third-most affordable experience, largely due to the availability of free parking and low-price tickets – two benefits Rays fans may not get to enjoy as much at a new ballpark.

FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook

Friday, April 10, 2015

More Great Advice for Politicians Thinking About Building a Stadium

Yesterday, I posted this important advice for elected officials who may one day even think about cutting a deal with a pro team.

Today, even more from the National Conference of State Legislators. Not exactly the first place you'd turn for good articles on sports business, but the deputy editor of Politifact wrote a fiscal paper designed for state lawmakers to make wiser choices on stadium subsidies.

His 10 tips are really, really smart.  Here's a few excerpts:

1. Ensure the project will attract out-of-towners.

If this goal isn’t achieved, studies show, new projects will simply divert existing entertainment money from restaurants, movie theaters and the like to the stadium, rather than increasing overall economic activity.

4. Choose the neighborhood carefully.

Where geography is concerned, “downtown stadiums are almost always winners, even when home to terrible teams,” says Arthur C. Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Research Center at the University of Utah. “The farther away from downtown you get, the greater the likelihood of local economic failure, even if the team does well,” he says.

5. Locate projects near mass transit.

Building a facility that will encourage event-goers to use close-by mass transit will maximize the positive impact for the surrounding neighborhood. With a sure ride home, sports fans will more likely stick around the area after the game.

6. Be wary of one-sided economic projections.

Supporters of stadium projects—including teams, business groups and government officials—often hire consultants to produce reports that estimate a project’s long-term economic impact. These typically include estimates of the direct impact of the stadium (jobs in construction and stadium operations), as well as the induced impact (money spent by visitors at the stadium or in the vicinity) and the indirect impact (money spent by stadium employees and local businesspeople as a result of new business drummed up by the stadium).

Typically, these reports offer projections that are hard to prove and easy to skew toward the rosiest of outlooks. This, combined with the propensity for stadium projects to experience cost overruns, suggests that it’s always worth taking consultants’ projections with a big grain of salt.

As the saying goes, cautions Allen Sanderson, a University of Chicago economist, “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.”

7. Insist on keeping the parking revenues.

“You cannot let teams keep the parking revenue from the lots around the stadium,” says Murphy, who is now with the Urban Land Institute. When teams are allowed to keep it, “surface lots become the highest and best use of the land.”

8. Drive a hard bargain.

The key to a successful project “is keeping the public’s share of the cost to a minimum,” says University of South Florida economist Philip Porter. That requires hard bargaining and refusing to approve a deal until the team has some significant skin in the game.
...
And avoid getting sucked into bidding wars at all costs, warns Pakko of the University of Arkansas-Little Rock. They rarely produce any winners. “Sports franchises have monopoly power,” he says. “There are a limited number of teams, so cities are asked to bid against one another, whether or not having a local team is economically viable.”
And, as a bonus, University of Chicago economist Don Coursey included a list of questions for journalists (or elected officials) covering economic development projects!
  • Why does this project require public funds?
  • Why can’t it be completed using private funds?
  • Who will construct the project? Who will operate the project? Will these groups of professionals, laborers and managers come from the local population? Will the majority of their earnings stay within the local economy?
  • What assumptions are you making about the spectrum of users of your project?
  • How much revenue will be new injections into the economy, as opposed to simple, zero-sum movements of money within the economy?
  • How much of a primary draw will your project generate? If the project is just one of the many things that people might use or visit within a region, how are you accounting for this in your measurement of visitor revenue for your project?
  • How much economic activity will the project promote indirectly? Who computed the “multiplier”—the amount of additional projected economic activity from every dollar spent directly on the project in question?
  • Why is your project the best use of public funds? How does the impact of your study compare to alternative uses of the same funds?
  • How do you expect the economy to be affected if the project is not funded and built?
  • How will you address whether the project has met the community’s and your goals? Have funds been set aside to support a subsequent analysis of its actual impact?
Now, if we could only get elected officials to pay attention to articles like this...