Henderson: Montreal Nothing But a Boogeyman

Following Michael Sasso's Wednesday piece in the Tampa Tribune about the likelihood Montreal could steal the Rays, columnist Joe Henderson follows it up today with a nice piece identifying the Canadian city as the "bogeyman who can help scare this area into building a new stadium for your Tampa Bay Rays."

Mind you, I don’t think we have anything to be scared about. If the Rays move anywhere, it will be across the bay to downtown Tampa. There has been precious little urgency about getting it done, though, because the Rays have no alternative to the catwalk-covered catastrophe known as Tropicana Field.

They probably still don’t, but it might help if local politicians believe they do. If you’ve ever been to Montreal, you know what a dynamic, lovely place it is.

As well-documented on this blog, I don't think the Rays will move to Montreal either.  And I don't think they will move to any other region, either.

But as Peter Gammons said, MLB teams "need to be able to blackmail" cities.

And as Jerry Reinsdorf said, "a savvy negotiator creates leverage."

So sure, why not use Montreal as the boogeyman?

Henderson also echoed my 2009 post that predicted the Rays would take a trip to some "MLB-starved city...a trip like that would normally go under-the-radar, but a well-placed call to someone like Peter Gammons or Rob Neyer will drop the tip that the Rays are exploring other communities."

In Henderson's words:

This is all about pressure, though, so, I would expect a few well-timed leaks from mystery sources saying the Rays might be headed to the cold, frozen north unless they get a new stadium. That might finally get things going here.

And when the new place eventually opens somewhere in Tampa, we can finally close this chapter of the team’s history and maybe offer a merci to our Canadian friends for helping to make it happen. We should appreciate them for stepping up.

That's just part of the stadium subsidy blueprint.  So rather than panic, Rays fans in Tampa Bay should just accept it, prepare for it, and - why not? - chuckle at it.

A smarter approach may be to figure out how much the team would be willing to put toward a new stadium and see if the region still wants to close the funding gap with public money over the next 10-15 years.

Perspective on Tampa's 2017 BCS Championship Bid

Tampa scored a nice victory this week by landing the 2017 BCS college football championship {link to Times' site}.  This comes on the heels of a successful NCAA hockey Frozen Four bid and a string of other events planned for Tampa.

I've written previously about how these bids often offer big-money concessions to leagues to land the events, but apparently, it's more than worth it since the BCS Championship will bring thousands of jobs to Tampa Bay: 

Hagan said he expects the championship to be an economic boon to Tampa "in the range" of the Super Bowl, bringing somewhere between $250 million and $350 million to the area, along with approximately 1,700 to 1,800 full-time jobs.

I don't know how Hagan came up with these numbers and I don't know how the Times allowed that to go unchallenged. But Deadspin had the same questions:

If Hagan wants to explain how a single game, at a stadium that already exists, is going to create 1,700 full-time jobs, we're happy to listen.

There hasn't been a ton of research on the economic impact of hosting a big sporting event, but what there is isn't pretty. Since Hagan cited the Super Bowl, we'll cite Philip Porter's research that found the net local impact of six different Florida Super Bowls was effectively zero, with the money going to out-of-town hotel owners, and the events actively crowding out other businesses. Or Dennis Coates's and Brad Humphreys's study showing no change in per capita income in Super Bowl host cities. Slightly more optimistically, there's Robert Baade's and Victor Matheson's study of 25 Super Bowls that found the NFL overstated the economic influx by a factor of 10, and local politicians exaggerated even more.

The good news for Hagan - even if the printed quote was missing proper context - is those numbers will likely be repeated over and over the next three years.

Regardless, we hope the BCS Championship will be a good thing for Tampa, at least bringing a nice little retail boost - and lots of "heads in beds" - on New Year's week 2017.  And another tip of the cap to Rob Higgins, the man behind the bids for the Tampa Bay Sports Commission.  He told the Times the bid's social media strategy was a large part of its success.

It's just too bad we may never know everything that was included in the bid.  Like how many public resources, tax breaks, and other concessesions were offered to get the game.

More on Braves & Atlanta's White Flight

Remember this little tweet on Nov. 11?

Interesting - racial breakdown of N. Atlanta vs. S. Atlanta: http://t.co/YBNGI2Mcr6
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) November 11, 2013

Well, the AP explains it a little more in-depth this weekend:

[T]he decision also highlights long-standing disparities over wealth, where people live and transportation — all facets of life connected to race and social class in Atlanta. The Braves will be moving from an area that's predominantly black and relatively poor compared to whiter Cobb County — where the team says more ticket-buyers live. Although it is long past segregation, the hometown of slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. is far from integrated, and the city's politics, business and even sports teams reflect that gap.

Consider what Rick Grimes views from his home blocks from Turner Field each time there's a game: fans, mostly white, streaming past on the sidewalk.

"I would say the large majority of people who support the Braves are white folks," said Grimes, who is African-American.

While no one would reasonably accuse the Braves of making a decision based on race or class, one scholar says major attractions often migrate toward money.

"It becomes a class issue in a lot of ways," said Larry Keating, a Georgia Tech professor emeritus who has studied Atlanta's development. "A lot of the primo stuff that is highly valued by the society ends up going where the wealthiest areas are."

Continue reading here.

Weekend Reading: Rowdies, Recruiting, Cleveland Clowns

1. Tampa Tribune: Bill Edwards buys Rowdies, will add 1,100 seats to Al Lang
2. Priceonomics: Stanford athletics overcome academic hurdles with fundraising
3. Field of Schemes: Stadiums. Don't. Make. Money.
4. Crain's Cleveland Business: The NFL rarely loses

Tampa Lands 2016 NCAA Frozen Four

Nice shout-out in this morning's Tampa Trib for Tampa Bay Sports Commission Executive Director Rob Higgins after he helped land the 2016 NCAA Frozen Four:

Even those who don’t know a puck from a pansy should be pleased Tampa will host the 2016 Frozen Four — the NCAA college hockey championship.
...
Under executive director Rob Higgins, and with the help of political and business leaders, the agency has been impressive in recruiting sporting events that help fill hotel rooms, restaurants and local attractions.

The key is "heads in beds," and these kind of events seem to provide much more real economic benefits than things like the Republican National Convention (which kept locals away from Tampa) or permanent sporting events, which seem to merely transplant spending from one part of the region to another.

Another thing: while the Tampa Bay Sports Commission likely had to offer concessions (financial help for facilities, hotels, transportation, police, etc), the bang-for-the-buck will likely better for these 19,000 fans than it would for an event like the NCAA Basketball tournament, which tends to draw more interest and competition.

That's why the successes and failures of the commission don't hinge on events like Super Bowls, but smaller (and cheaper) tournaments that attract out-of-towners to the region.

Montreal Feasibility Study Says Landing Team Would Cost $1 Billion

If Montreal wants the Rays someday, it'll cost more than a billion bucks. 

That's according to a new $400,000 feasibility study (not sure if that money was counted in the $1B) done by Ernst & Young for a group of Montreal businessmen looking to bring MLB back to town.  The leader of the group is former Expos player Warren Cromartie.

On one hand, the study concluded the city could easily sustain a baseball team, given the region's 3.8 million population.  That's slightly more than Tampa Bay's, depending how you measure a metro.

But on the other hand, there doesn't appear to be anywhere near enough money to build a new stadium, estimated at $500 million, plus another $525 million to buy a team.  Furthermore, the proposed stadium would be open-air, similar to Minnesota's Target Field.

From the "you can make a statistic say anything" department, the study concluded a new Montreal stadium would draw between 27,600 and 31,600 fans per night.  This was based on resident polling and a comparison of attendance in Seattle, Minnesota, San Diego, Arizona, and Milwaukee (why not Tampa Bay?)

Of course, the study ignored the fact that the Expos were drawing fewer than 10,000 fans per game their final few year.  Maybe the study was conducted by Youppi! or Scott Boras.

How else to explain Quebecers newfound love for baseball?  Maybe they really are interested in seeing baseball in a brand-new outdoor stadium.  But who knows if a team could sustain 27,000 fans a night once the "new ballpark smell" wears off (the Mets, Padres, D-Backs, White Sox, Mariners, Astros, Indians, and Marlins couldn't).

Too bad we will probably never know, since there doesn't seem to be anyone in Canada looking to blow a billion bucks on baseball.

Which Will Get Bigger Play in Tomorrow's Papers?

You make the call - which piece of "news" will get the front page of tomorrow's local papers?

MAjor league baseball viable in Montreal again. An in depth feasibility study to be released tomorrow says so.
— Nick Cafardo (@nickcafardo) December 11, 2013

Join us this Thursday at the @MahaffeyTheater in #StPete for a major announcement! Press conference begins at 2pm. pic.twitter.com/u9GXx66qeB
— Tampa Bay Rowdies (@RowdiesSoccer) December 11, 2013

Verducci on Rays Stadium Saga

A level-headed, honest take on the Rays' Stadium Saga from Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci:

Atlanta Shenanigans: Weather Channel Following Braves' Subsidy Plan

Neil deMause notes The Weather Channel may follow in the Atlanta Braves' footsteps and ink a subsidy deal in Cobb County:

The Marietta Daily Journal reports that these could include “significant” tax breaks for the Weather Channel agreeing to stay in town.

That sounds bad, and it is, but the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Kyle Wingfield notes that at least the Weather Channel is talking about adding about 250 jobs at an average salary of $75,000. The Braves, meanwhile, are promising 4,014 jobs (some at projects surrounding the stadium) for a total payroll of $61 million, which is an average salary of … $15,000? Clearly those aren’t full-time jobs, which makes sense, since most baseball jobs aren’t.

Which means if you pro-rate it to maybe 1,500 full-time equivalent jobs, then Cobb is looking at shelling out at least $200,000 per job, which is just dismal. But then, “dismal” is increasingly looking like Cobb’s middle name.

So who else in Atlanta wants them some Cobb Co. tax dollars?  Home Depot?  Coca-Cola?  The Varsity?

Would Brewers Really Move to Fla.? Could Pinellas Co. Really Land Another Team?

My focus at the Winter Meetings Tuesday was spring training and what fallout we'd eventually see if the Blue Jays and Astros continue their plans to move to Palm Beach Gardens.

Of course, there was the recent news about Dunedin (and thus, Pinellas Co.) courting the Brewers.  But after speaking to some Pinellas County commissioners today, I learned of another idea that had been thrown against the wall (who knows if it will stick): possibly expanding Clearwater's Brighthouse Field to accommodate a second spring team.

Granted, its a longshot, but the creative move would qualify for matching state spring training retention funds (even if Pinellas just steals a team from another Florida city).

Then again, one good source in Milwaukee told me the Brewers would only entertain the Florida idea to drum up leverage to get their desired renovations in Phoenix.

Meanwhile, Pinellas has its hands full with all the mouths that want to be fed from the tourist tax trough...a Clearwater aquarium, beach renourishment, and a BMX park are just a few of the interests that have requested county money.  And if the Rays want the $200 million or so that will soon be available they'd better ask fast!  (Hillsborough, by the way, cannot bond nearly that much from new bed taxes)

Either way, this is all good hot stove talk on a day where the Rays declined all comments on their Stadium Saga....

Read more about Pinellas County's plan on WTSP.com.

Minneapolis Faces Tough Stadium Funding Questions (Almost Too Late)

Stadium subsidy deficits sometimes take eight or 10 years to destroy a community's budget, or in the case of Glendale, at least until your team threatens to move again.  But in Minneapolis, there's already trouble brewing for the Vikings' new yet-to-be-opened stadium.

According to Field of Schemes, the state of Minnesota's budget & economic forecast indicates its stadium reserve fund will be depleted by 2016:

And after 2016, what happens? Minneapolis tax revenue currently going to pay off the convention center should be available starting in 2020, but until then, it’s anyone’s guess. Schowalter said the state could “restructure” the payments to forestall any budget gap until the convention center money starts flowing, but that would mean higher payments later, and the convention center money is also going to be needed to pay for previously approved renovations to the Timberwolves‘ Target Center, so … I’m serious, this is really the kind of thing that should be explained in a budget forecast document. If budget forecasts were really about the explaining.

St. Pete Adds Another Lawyer to its Stable

In addition to outgoing mayor Bill Foster (a lawyer), incoming mayor Rick Kriseman (a lawyer), and city attorney John Wolfe, the City of St. Pete will retain the services of Minneapolis attorney Corey Ayling, according to the Tampa Tribune.

Ayling helped Minneapolisa fight off any Twins relocation/contraction about a decade ago, and St. Pete is reportedly hoping to lean on his experience...just in case.

Dunedin Courts Brewers Spring Training

Earlier this year, the State of Florida announced $5 million in state money available annually to any municipality willing to put up matching funds for spring training stadium construction.

And while it has prompted several Florida municipalities to compete against each other to offer monster stadium subsidies to teams that may not have otherwise considered leaving Florida, it will also make it easier for the Sunshine State to steal teams away from Arizona.

The Phoenix Business Journal reports the Brewers, who have played the spring training stadium subsidy game before, are entertaining offers in Dunedin, Fla., which soon could lose the Blue Jays:

Somewhat surprisingly, a top Brewers executive did not deny the possibility the club would consider Florida.

“We are reviewing all of our options and have not ruled anything out at this point,” Bob Quinn, the Brewers executive vice president of finance and administration, told me via email late Monday.
...
(The team's recent contract extension) allows the Brewers to terminate the lease if the city of Phoenix does not make improvements the team has demanded to the athletic training facilities, office and clubhouse, according to MLB.com.

The Blue Jays’ contract with Dunedin expires in 2017 and the team has signed a letter of intent to move to Palm Beach Gardens on Florida’s east coast when a new stadium is built there, the Tampa Bay Business Journal reports.

Four years ago, I criticized a Tampa Tribune editorial that sensationalized Grapefruit League flight.  I even suggested Florida could pick up a team by courting the Brewers.  But I also wrote that Ft. Myers' City of Palms Park, former home of the Red Sox, would be the state's top option for a new team.

So don't be surprised if Lee Co. and Pinellas Co. eventually duke it out over which one can offer more money to court the Brewers.  And don't be surprsied if its all just a ploy by the team to get Phoenix to pay for some major upgrades.

After all, Florida's stadium earmarks will ensure MLB - a $9 billion business - will never again have to pay for any real spring training stadium costs.

I hope to have some more next week when the Winter Meetings return to Orlando, Fla.

Rays Release Renovation Plans

Since there's no point in doing the same job twice, why don't we just rely on some tweets from today's press conference unveiling the Rays' plans for stadium renovations, including a 360-degree concourse around the stadium?

#Rays unveil designs for 2014 renovations: pic.twitter.com/N5FsVhME8L
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

#Rays unveil designs for 2014 renovations: pic.twitter.com/OOtZ7sctdk
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

Panorama of #Rays' new CF concourse (in-progress): pic.twitter.com/v8WNKzjz8H
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

(More pictures posted over on the Shadow of a Stadium Twitter page)

#Rays stadium renovation will include removal of 3,000 seats to accommodate outfield walkway/concourse.
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

#Rays will also tarp off a few more balcony seats to create more "intimate" atmosphere.
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

#Rays stadium renovation will reduce regular-season capacity to 31,042.
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

There were plenty of "lipstick on a pig" comments across the Twitterverse, but these improvements make a lot of sense.  The Rays wouldn't say how much they're contributing on top of the $1.3 million from a city/team capital improvement escrow fund, other than "seven digits," bringing the total sum the team has spent on Tropicana Field renovations sinc 2005 to more than $20 million.

But not only will fans enjoy the improvements, the team will as well:

#Rays renovations will drastically improve OF fans' access to concessions. That alone could pay for renovations.
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

Fans in the outfield, who used to have to really hike around the park to get a beer, will now be able to just walk next door to the Captain Morgan-sponsored party deck.  Hopefully area taxis will benefit too.

The Rays also announced new ticket and concession discounts for fans {link to Times' story} and seems to be doing everything possible to increase their attendance (and revenue) at The Trop.

#Rays VP Michael Kalt: "This is a statement from the team that we are committed to this fan base and the region."
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) December 3, 2013

The big question: is it enough to reverse the decline previously identified as a "self-fulfilling prophecy?"

Times Starts Cranking Up Pressure on Kriseman

St. Petersburg Mayor-Elect Rick Kriseman hasn't even assumed office yet but the editorial board for the Tampa Bay Times is making sure he knows a new Rays stadium is high on their priorities for his first 100 days.

A Sunday editorial titled, "On Rays, no time to waste," makes some decent points about how transit plans, bed tax contributions, and future development are all impacted by whether a new stadium is built (and where).

But in its attempts to direct Kriseman's handling of the delicate issue, the editorial board makes a few bold assumptions:

Every year that ticks off the Tampa Bay Rays' lease to play at Tropicana Field reduces leverage for St. Petersburg and makes it more likely the team could leave the region.

Yes, every year that goes by means fewer damages the Rays would presumably owe St. Pete for breaking its contract early.  But every year that goes by also means one extra guaranteed year of Rays baseball in St. Pete and Tampa Bay.  Is that a bad thing?

Furthermore, if the editorial board assumes all teams want to leave their stadiums when their contracts expire (actually, a decent hypothesis), shouldn't it be just as concerned about the Lightning possibly leaving in 2026?  Or the Bucs possibly leaving in 2028 for Los Angeles, London, or who knows where else?

(Not to mention, for the hundreth time, the Rays have a use agreement, not a lease)

The editorial also had this puzzling paragraph:

The economic rebound could stall, making it harder to allocate public money for a stadium and for the Rays to attract more fans. Deals for new stadiums across the country could be difficult for Tampa Bay to match. A new baseball commissioner could change the conversation in a way that hurts this region's effort to keep major-league baseball.

In one fell swoop, the Times makes the case that:

1. Tampa Bay should consider public subsidies for a stadium now in case the economy sputters and we can't afford them later.
2. Other cities that want baseball wouldn't be affected by the same sputtering economy.
3. A new baseball commissioner could be even more "frustrated," "disappointed," and "concerned" than Bud Selig over the team's contract through 2027 and its inability to negotiate out of it.

In the previous paragraph, the Times also acknowledged that - given a choice - voters would likely object to stadium subsidies.  Yet, it has staked a clear position now that public subsidies should be on the table for a Downtown Tampa stadium.

The Times has also backed off any pressure on the Rays to compensate St. Pete for breaking its contract early, as well as for the Rays to "open their books" to actually demonstrate a financial need.