Thursday, June 20, 2019

FSU privatizing its athletics department is so shady, not even Seminoles fans should support it

Florida State University is embarking on perhaps the darkest chapter in its athletics department’s history, which is significant for a program that has endured a massive cheating scandal, multiple Jameis Winston controversies, and whatever the heck that was that the 'Noles put on the football field in 2018.

Is this over-the-top outrage for the school creating a private booster organization to run its athletics department? Especially when a pair of other universities in the state already have the same arrangement?

Depends on whom you ask … and how much you value transparency.

If you’re the win-at-all-costs type who roots for your team regardless of how many criminals they place on the field or how many booster bucks flow into their pockets … I guess there’s no need to read any further.

But if you’re a taxpayer who cares about how your money is spent, or you’re simply a human being who believes sunlight and transparency are the best disinfectants, then FSU’s move to convert its athletics department into a private direct service organization (DSO), thus exempting it from state public records laws, should be extremely concerning.

The Sunshine State has a rich tradition of transparency and accountability in government, and FSU’s end-around on those values couldn’t be more obvious.

Yet, somehow, it seems none of the officials tasked with looking out for Floridians seem to be concerned.

For what it’s worth, FSU President John Thrasher told The Washington Post’s Will Hobson the restructuring had nothing to do with avoiding public records and more to do with streamlining fundraising and athletics/booster relations.

Thrasher said the Seminoles would continue to provide access to public records like emails, text messages, and financials — just as the University of Florida has done through its DSO.

But these schools will only provide full access to these records until the day they decide not to.

Continue reading here on FloridaPolitics.com.






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Wednesday, June 5, 2019

New Clearwater Spring Training Report Determines Bogus Economist’s Numbers are Bogus

Hat-tip to the Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson, who wrote Tuesday about how a new spring training economic impact report from the city of Clearwater contradicts a similar report from just one year earlier - a report the city used in 2018 to try and justify $80 million in taxpayer-subsidized stadium renovations.

Note: the word "report" is used throughout this story, rather than "study." 
That's because it's typically marketing professionals - not economists - who compile the rosy reports in an effort to justifying taxpayer subsidies for privately-operated stadiums.

Most real economists will tell you these studies are wildly-inflated, and Kirby had no trouble finding some a couple to offer up thoughts. Even Andrew Zimbalist, an economist who has been paid to consult on behalf of MLB, told the Times there were some pretty big flaws in both of Clearwater's reports.

Clearwater's 2018 report was based off old research by FSU marketing & hospitality professor Mark Bonn, who was exposed by WTSP in 2017 for selling decades of inflated reports to Florida municipalities that lacked basic economic principles and intentionally skewed numbers to get desired results. The estimated economic impact of the Phillies in 2018: $70 million.

Seeking better numbers in 2019 - but not trying very hard - Clearwater turned to the firm of a different FSU marketing professor (now retired), Phillip Downs.

Downs' firm acknowledged in its 2019 report that locals who spent money at Phillies games likely would have spent it elsewhere if Spring Training was not an option. It also acknowledged that a tourist who attends three Phillies games only needs one hotel room per night, not three, as Bonn's reports have previously suggested.

The Downs and St. Germain Research report suggested the Phillies were not worth $70 million per year to Clearwater, but $44 million per year - a figure experts said was still inflated.

The authors of the report defended their numbers, telling the Times they relied on fan surveys and a model called IMPLAN to figure out how much direct spending will ripple throughout a community after the event.

However, economists say IMPLAN wasn't designed for one-time or seasonal events.

For what its worth, the Phillies told the Times the $44 million figure was simply too low. One reason, Phillies players often buy homes in Tampa Bay. 

It's not clear how many millions of dollars in groceries and rounds of golf are accounted for by the 25 players on the team's roster.

For the record, if you were wondering if there was ever an economic impact report that suggested public stadium subsidies were not worth their price, the answer is yes: when Florida's top economist took an impartial look at the state's stadium spending in 2017, she concluded it provided very little return on investment.

The Phillies and Clearwater are looking for Pinellas County to pick up the majority of the $80 million renovation tab, even though Spectrum Field is already considered one of the Grapefruit League's nicest parks.





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Friday, May 31, 2019

Are the Tampa Bay Rays Actually Rooting for Bad Attendance?

Top question I get regarding the Rays Stadium Saga: "Where will the team be playing in 2027?"

Answer: I don't know.

Second most-frequent question I'm asked about the Rays: "Do you think the team is intentionally tanking at the box office?"

This answer is a bit more nuanced.

No, I don't think the team is trying to suppress attendance like the Cleveland Indians did in the movie Major League.

However, like that Roger Dorn- and Ricky Vaughn-led Indians team, it doesn't hurt the Rays' argument for relocation when one can count all the fans in any given section using just your fingers and toes.

This week has been an especially-futile one for the Rays, drawing a franchise-low crowd of 5,786 Tuesday, followed by just 6,166 Wednesday, despite racking up a six-game win-streak and closing to within a half-game of the red-hot Yankees for first place in the AL East.

Thank goodness for the Miami Marlins, whose 9,478 fans per night (at their modern, taxpayer-funded stadium) is the only thing keeping the Rays' 13,731 per-game average from another last-place MLB finish.

Attendance at the Trop is actually up 51 fans per game from the same point last year, and it would have been higher had the Rays not closed off their upper deck this season, limiting attendance to just 25,025 at each of their three sellouts so far.

Closing off the upper deck has also allowed the Rays to reduce day-of-game operating costs, while reducing the number of cheap seats available to fans; it's essentially a ticket-price hike for games that draw a half-decent crowd.

Yet, most nights, there's no shortage of good, cheap seats available....why?

It isn't because the Rays want empty seats, or even need them to make their point about long-term profitability.

It's more likely that the team's repeated mantra of "our home is not a good home to play or watch baseball in" has become a self-fulfilling prophecy over the last ten seasons. If you repeat something enough, people will eventually believe you.

Anecdotally, I think another factor is the team's not-so-subtle reminders they may be playing in another state come 2027; I've seen this push would-be fanatics away from the team.

So the Rays essentially find themselves in the same death spiral the Expos fell victim to in their last few, uncertain seasons in Montreal....with one difference: profits.

MLB's business model is much different now than it was in 2004, with a much bigger share of revenue coming from digital and broadcast rights than from inside the stadium.

Not to mention, even though the Rays may not be drawing any more fans than they did last year, if they raised the average price of tickets, they can continue to increase revenues without an increase at the box office.

The Rays haven't responded to my requests for comment in a very long time, but team president Brian Auld told ABC Action News, “We appreciate the support of our fans, and we believe that St. Petersburg, Tampa and the entire Tampa Bay region will rally around this exciting and compelling Rays team.”

I truly believe Auld and Matt Silverman and Melanie Lenz and the rest of the Rays' front office wants to make a new Tampa Bay ballpark happen...but it simply won't under Stu Sternberg's watch if he has to pay for it.

I also believe Rays executives would like more fans to come out to watch their great product; they may be making healthy profits (most MLB teams are), but there's always a thirst for more.

So no, the Rays have no reason to root for lower attendance - a few thousand fans here or there won't do much to change their stadium situation. But as long as the revenues keep flowing in, I don't know if the team really minds the bad box office numbers, either.






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Friday, May 24, 2019

Hagan and Kriseman are still squabbling, and the Rays are still loving it

Hillsborough County didn't appear to come close to luring the Tampa Bay Rays over to Ybor City during a three-year negotiating window, but it isn't stopping Tampa's biggest stadium cheerleader, County Commissioner Ken Hagan, from launching bombs across the bay.

"I think it's incumbent on St. Pete and for Mayor (Rick) Kriseman to stop being shortsighted to see the big picture," Hagan told WTVT on Wednesday, suggesting St. Pete should grant the team another negotiating window with Tampa.
Kriseman responded in kind on Twitter, "#FloridaMan suffers short-term memory loss, forgets St. Pete's regional approach and the 3 years he had to find a stadium solution."
The Tampa vs. St. Pete tug-of-war continues...and the Rays are likely delighted. Because if the team really wants that hugely-subsidized stadium in Tampa Bay, it doesn't hurt to have two parties competing (and bidding) against each other.

So why do Tampa and St. Pete keep bickering instead of working together on a multi-regional funding approach, as other MLB markets have done to keep their teams? It's a question neither Hagan nor Kriseman nor former Mayor Bob Buckhorn have ever really answered.
Hagan now ignores questions outright from certain reporters, but in his comments to friendly face Kevin O'Donnell at WTVT, continued to criticize Kriseman: "The worst thing for St. Pete, for the Tampa Bay Rays, and for Tampa/Hillsborough County is the status quo. We recognize that, the Rays recognize that, and now I think Mayor Kriseman and St. Pete needs to recognize that."

The Rays are not currently allowed to talk to Hagan or the stadium consultant still working on behalf of the Tampa Sports Authority (TSA) about a new stadium, per their contract with St. Petersburg. They need written approval and permission from St. Pete's city council to explore any replacement stadium outside city limits prior to 2027.
Kriseman, to his credit, has gone further than any other Pinellas politician in helping the Rays explore stadium sites in Tampa, sticking his neck out in 2015 to secure an amendment from city council that allowed the Rays three years to talk to Hillsborough County - talks that exposed just how little money (and appetite) there was available for a fourth publicly-subsidized stadium in Hillsborough.

Kriseman is also pretty much fed-up with the lack of progress in redeveloping the 85 highly-sought-after Tropicana Field acres in the middle of his downtown. He wants to know if the Rays are staying or going, so the city can capitalize on the hot economy before development slows.

Hagan appears to be no different. 

Closely connected to Tampa's network of real estate and property developers, the commissioner has been the region's single-bigger booster of a proposed new Ybor stadium and redeveloped ballpark district

Hagan's last three re-election campaigns have all featured promises to help get the Rays a new stadium, including a 2010 pledge not to use public funds on the project. He has since changed his tune, publicly supporting a number of different subsidies to help the Rays finance their nearly-$1 billion plan to build a park in Ybor City.

And now, he is working to get a deal done - not with his fellow county commissioners and county staff - but through his board seat on the Tampa Sports Authority (TSA), an agency seen as more stadium-friendly than the county commissioner. When contacted by a reporter last week, neither Hagan nor a TSA spokesman provided any comment.

At the end of the day, stadium squabbling only helps the Rays; it might force Hillsborough and Pinellas to work together for once on this issue; it might add fuel to the fire in a tug-of-war that could shake more money out of tight taxpayer pockets; or it might reveal how little interest there really is in Tampa Bay to fund another stadium.

Don't forget sports fans - the Bucs' lease is up in 2027 as well, and they'll undoubtedly be soon looking for your tax dollars again too. Hillsborough is stretched thin on bed tax dollars, currently paying down debt on Raymond James Stadium, Steinbrenner Field, and Amalie Arena.

So regardless if you think Hagan is wrong to treat Kriseman like an enemy instead of an ally, he's definitely right about one thing: the Rays will only be as loyal to Tampa Bay as Tampa Bay is loyal to subsidizing their next home, and keeping the team for decades to come will come with a price.

UPDATE: Kriseman tweeted a reply to this article.






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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Why USF is right (and UCF is wrong) about 2-for-1 football series

The USF Bulls announced Thursday, to the delight of their football fans, an agreement to play three games again perennial powerhouse Alabama. The teams will meet in Tampa in 2023, then Tuscaloosa in 2024 and 2026.

Not delighted: University of Central Florida fans.

See, the growing Golden Knights fan base, an increasingly-loud force on social media known as the “UCF Mafia," have been echoing their outspoken Athletic Director, Danny White, complaining the biggest college football programs in the country were “afraid“ to schedule them.

That turned out to be untrue, as Florida's athletic director had contacted White about a series - and White wasn't interested.

White's talking points then changed, complaining about the terms the NCAA's largest football programs demand from a relatively low-income program like UCF: two games at their house in exchange for one at yours.

"We shouldn't have to" accept a 2-for-1 series, UCF Nation argues on behalf of fairness, saying they'd be giving up a competitive advantage as well as revenue from the loss of a half home game over the three-season agreement.

But see, the financial issue really isn't that significant. Public records reveal the school took in just $4.6 million from football tickets during their undefeated 2017 season. That's $764,500 per game. So to lose half a game's gate ($382,000 over the course of three seasons) is hardly enough reason to shun a great match-up.

For UCF, it's about pride and admitting they're not an NCAA powerhouse yet where it matters most: revenue.

UCF's athletics budget in FY18 was $62 million. And more than almost any other school in the nation, those expenses are balanced on the backs of students.

Student fees accounted for $23.1 million of UCF's athletic revenue - that's a mandatory fee for every student who attends classes at the university, even though most will never go to a single football game. UCF supported its athletics program with another $4.5 million last year from its main (academics) operations.

Most NCAA programs don't bring in enough revenue to support their entire athletics budget, so UCF is not alone. But its revenues are far enough behind the teams in the "Power 5" conferences to explain why they don't get to call their own shots on scheduling like Florida, Alabama, and Texas do.

Last year, UCF upped its booster donations to $8.2 million - a great haul for an American Athletic Conference team, but a far cry from the $43.3 million in donations the University of Florida used on its athletics program last year or the $55.1 million Florida State reported collecting. Of course, AAC conference revenues also pale in comparison to those UF and FSU collect from the SEC and ACC, respectively.

USF, meanwhile, whose booster contributions dropped to just $2.2 million last year, has clearly taken a different strategy when it comes to building alumni support and its program's revenues while playing in the not-so-lucrative AAC.

The Bulls' just-announced series with Alabama is only the latest 2-for-1 concession the program has agreed to; earlier this month, it announced three-game series with Miami and Texas; last year, it announced a 2-for-1 series against the Florida Gators.

USF hopes to parlay the big events - and potentially big upset wins - into excitement for the program. Excitement can be translated into new ticket sales, bigger booster donations, and larger revenues.

Perhaps most importantly, a bigger following could mean better TV ratings, the golden ticket into a Power 5 conference like the Big 12, which would deliver the monster broadcast and tournament revenues the Bulls and Knights both desperately long for.

But right now, neither USF nor UCF has done enough to impress the Big 12 - remember, it's more about the dollars than the wins. And while both programs seem to be heading in right direction, it's very slow growth on the budget sheet.

Frankly, the growth is much slower than UCF would like to admit.

It's a long and unfair process that favors the traditional powerhouses and schools that turned their back on conferences like the Big East in favor of the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12.

The system is stacked against low-revenue teams like USF and UCF, but complaining about it does about as much good as the Rays complaining they are expected to compete against the Red Sox and Yankees every year.

Fortunately for USF and UCF - they do have a choice, and do have a pathway to prove themselves against the best teams in the country, like Alabama, who are under zero obligation to schedule additional tough games outside the already-toughest schedules in the country.

And if a school like UCF decides it doesn't like the terms of the deal, they have every right to reject it.

However, when UCF chooses to reject those options, they should also lose the right to complain about the lack of big games on their schedule.




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Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Yes, Hillsborough & Tampa are Still Trying to Build a New Rays Stadium

Cross-posted from FloridaPolitics.com

The Tampa Bay Rays may have struck out in getting Hillsborough County to help them build and finance a new stadium in Ybor City, but it hasn’t stopped the public money from flowing to a Tampa/Hillsborough stadium consultant.

The Tampa Sports Authority, funded by the city of Tampa and Hillsborough County, continues to pay for consultant Irwin Raij, an attorney originally hired by the county in 2014 for his expertise in stadium negotiations.

Hillsborough County spent more than $700,000 for Raij’s consulting services between 2014 and 2018, including $331,436 last year alone. That’s an average of $150,000 per year, until the relationship was transferred over to the Tampa Sports Authority (TSA) late in 2018.

TSA directors are considered a friendlier public board to the Rays’ stadium campaign than Hillsborough’s Board of County Commissioners, even though county dollars help fund the sports authority.

The Rays closed the door on a three-year negotiating window with Tampa and Hillsborough County in December, indicating local governments and businesses did not bring nearly enough money to the table to advance their Ybor City stadium plans.

The team is currently prohibited from speaking to any community other than St. Petersburg about stadium construction or relocation before 2027, but the TSA has continued to pay for Raij’s consulting; $58,431 since the start of 2019.

Many in Tampa believe there are still enough dollars to make a stadium work there someday, and they are holding out hope that the Rays’ lack of 2019 progress with St. Petersburg is a sign they’re still hoping to cross the bay.

A TSA spokesperson did not return multiple requests for comment this week, nor did TSA Chief Operating Officer Eric Hart or Hillsborough’s lead stadium negotiator, County Commissioner Ken Hagan, when contacted Thursday.

Raij is considered one of the nation’s foremost experts on pro stadium matters; not only is he billing more than $100,000 a year from Tampa Bay taxpayers, but WTSP revealed in December that he is also collecting paychecks to consult on Portland’s bid to secure an MLB team, possibly through relocation.





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Monday, March 25, 2019

No, WrestleMania isn’t going to bring $150-$175 million to Tampa

In case you missed it, I penned a piece for FloridaPolitics.com recently that explained how economic impact claims are mostly made up from bogus non-science and aim to trick taxpayers into supporting what might otherwise be an unpopular spend of public money.

Next year's WrestleMania in Tampa, which will likely benefit from millions in public subsidies, is no exception.

An excerpt from my piece:
The Tampa Bay Times broke the story, and it was a good scoop. WWE even gave the paper credit in its official news release!

Don’t be fooled; the attribution wasn’t because WWE is an upstanding institution that supports the Fourth Estate by properly citing good journalism.

The WWE mentioned the Times in its opening line because Joey Knight wrote: “Tampa never previously has hosted a WrestleMania, which often attracts live crowds of more than 50,000 as well as a sizable pay-per-view (and WWE Network) audience, and can generate $150-175 million in economic impact on the host community.”

The corporation is merely trying to legitimize its inflated economic impact claim; a claim the Times repeated in its breaking news article, without any citation of source or disclaimer of who paid for the economic impact report.
You can continue reading the rest here.







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Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Bringing the Magic Back!

More than 1,500 articles over 10 years. This blog has seen a lot of writing...but unfortunately, still not a lot of closure on the Rays stadium saga.

Much of my writing has been moved over to WTSP.com/stadium. But I’m going to be bringing some of the classics back here as well, so if there are any specific posts you’d like retrieved, reach out to me on Facebook or Twitter and I’ll do my best!

-Noah







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Sunday, April 29, 2018

Farewell

As I prepare for the ninth anniversary of Shadow of the Stadium, I've reflected on how much time and effort (1500 posts!) have gone into providing context and perspective on sports business issues.

But if you haven't noticed from some periods of light activity on the blog, it is sometimes difficult for me to keep up with the all the news coming out of our region. For that reason, I've secretly been hoping for that light at the end of the tunnel: a conclusion to the saga that would allow me to put a neat little final bow on this endeavor.

The truth is, though, there will never be an "end" to the saga.  Nor will there be an end to the demands of my real life and my real job watchdogging a variety of issues across Florida...in fact, they only seem to grow.

So for those reasons, I've decided to suspend activity on the Shadow of the Stadium blog.

No, I won't stop reporting, and I won't stop holding people accountable.

In fact, this will allow me to focus more of my time and effort on turning impactful investigations in my real job.

And by continuing to follow along on my Twitter and Facebook accounts, and by subscribing to my (occasional) newsletter, I'll still promise to feed you any consequential stories I cover so you won't miss a beat.

In conclusion, I thank all of you who have been loyal readers for all these years - including my critics - and I hope you continue to follow these important storylines via my other outlets.






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Thursday, April 5, 2018

Local Business Owners Will Support Rays if They Become Cool Again

Tampa Bay Rays 2020, the Rays-backed nonprofit cheerleading for a new baseball stadium in Tampa, held an invitation-only event to unveil the "Rays 100" yesterday, a list of business & community leaders who will act as ambassadors on the mission.

Shockingly, I was not invited to the invitation-only event.  (although, it seems "nice" TV reporters, despite their station's webscript full of typos & errors - were invited)

But from the Tampa Bay Times' reporting, we learn there's a real solid core of prominent, influential, and wealthy Tampa leaders behind the effort.  It was described as a "transformational" group.

I still wonder if an astute businessman like Stu Sternberg is going to all of a sudden commit hundreds of millions of additional dollars to a 30-year project just because Tampa business leaders give non-binding "commitments" to buying tickets and sponsorship deals for a few years.  But what do I know?

I also have to point out the Times' lead anecdote in today's story: how CEOs like Vincent Cassidy (Majesty Title Services) used to regularly buy and distribute Rays tickets until they started going unused by the handful "about three years ago."

On one hand, Cassidy says he'd re-invest in the Rays if there was a new product his clients and associates were excited to go to.

But on the other hand, he apparently didn't have huge trouble giving away tickets to Tropicana Field, all the way on the other side of that enormous bridge, just a few years back.

So did Tropicana Field all of a sudden become unbearable?

Did the Howard Frankland Bridge all of a sudden get longer?

Or did the Rays tarnish their product so much with their self-fulfilling gloom-and-doom prophecy that Tampa Bay residents no longer think its worth their time to visit the stadium?  And if that's the case, are we really just spending $800 million to make the Rays cool again for some unknown period of time?





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Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Breaking News: Rays Will Spend More Money on Stadium if Someone Gives Them More Money

This isn't breaking news. In fact, it isn't even news. And even the facts behind the headlines you're seeing this week don't even seem to be all that accurate.

But after everyone in town was reporting that Stu Sternberg was now offering up to $400 million toward a new Tampa stadium (he wasn't), it's worth posting the link to John Romano's Monday column on that non-offer offer.

Romano pretty much echoed what this blog wrote last week: the Rays definitely aren't getting a $25 million/year naming rights deal in Tampa, so they definitely aren't offering "halfsies" on an $800 million stadium:
It would sort of be like wondering if injured pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is going to win 25 games this year.

"You get me 25 wins from Eovaldi, and we’ll win the World Series.’’

If Sternberg had said that, everyone would laugh.

And you should probably laugh at the $400 million, too.

I’m not suggesting Sternberg was being untruthful or playing word games. In fact, I think his overall position has been remarkably consistent from the beginning.

As far as the Rays are concerned, the funding of the stadium has always been a sliding scale proposition.

If, for instance, team officials are convinced they can make $50 million a year more in Ybor than they are making in St. Petersburg, then a $400 million investment is not outlandish.

If it looks like their revenues in Ybor will only go up $15 million a year, then even a $150 million investment is less attractive.

Philosophically, that is the message Sternberg made in November, and it’s the same message he delivered at Tropicana Field on Thursday.
I guess the big question is, how executives who have been so astute to statistics, prognosticating, and getting every little edge possible can claim they don't have legit estimates to share on what kind of new revenues a new stadium will bring them.  Sternberg and Brian Auld have both told me that over the years.

I also find it hard to believe an astute businessman is going to all of a sudden commit tens of millions of dollars more to a project if a nonprofit group secures non-binding "commitments" from local businesses to buy tickets and luxury boxes.

Most importantly, if projected new revenues from a stadium right now only warrant a $150 million contribution from the team ($12 million per year, or so), why should the public spend $50 million a year when it will only increase Rays payroll by say, $15 million a year?  It'd be better to just cut the team a check each season to cover operational expenses.

That's why my 2012 post on how many fans the Rays really need to make a difference has aged so well.





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Articles That Aged Well: How Many Fans Do the Rays Need? (Oct '12)

Reposted from October 2012 (links may not all work):


It's been a busy three weeks in the Stadium Saga, especially for columnists and editorial boards. Sunday, Tampa Bay Times columnist John Romano wrote that the Rays are as good as gone from St. Pete and Mayor Bill Foster should use his leverage now to negotiate financial compensation....before it's too late. 
 
That column drew the ire of Rays blogger "Schmitty," who wrote "An Open Letter to John Romano and the Tampa Bay Times About the Rays Stadium Situation."

(For what it's worth, Romano wrote in April about how the Rays' contract with St. Pete is "very close" to ironclad)
And today, the Tampa Tribune editorial board authored a blunt recommendation to move the Rays to somewhere more centralized in Tampa Bay.  Where, you ask?  They did not specify.
But the editorial brought up several good points:
  • "The region must get it right because it's highly unlikely we'll get a third chance."
  • "Wherever the Rays play, some fans are going to have to drive across the bay bridges," implying fans should get over it.
  • "Cut 15 minutes off the time it takes most fans to get to the stadium and the Rays still will have empty seats."
The Trib contends the goal is getting out of the league's attendance cellar, but that strikes me as setting their sights extremely low.  A $500-600 million stadium to lift the Rays from 30th place to 26th place doesn't seem to me like a good investment.

So how many more fans are needed to warrant the investment? 

Thirty-thousand?  That would bump the Rays up to 15th out of 30 teams and would mean an extra 870,000 fans a year.  But 30,000/game seems unsustainable given the fact that the Marlins only drew 27,400 in their first season and playoff teams like Cincinnati and Baltimore only drew 28,978 and 26,610, respectively, this year despite their modern stadiums.

Twenty-five thousand?  That would bump the Rays up to 24th in the league in attendance and mean 465,000 more fans a year.  But there's a big question if the Marlins could draw that many next year or if the Rays - by moving from a county with 900,000 residents to a county with 1.1 million residents could either.

Twenty-three thousand?  Is it worth $500-600 million for 303,000 fans a year?  If the ticket average is $25, that's $7.5 million a year for the Rays.  Add parking and concessions and maybe it's $15 million a year for the Rays.  Might just be cheaper for Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties to hand the team an annual tax credit.

Back to the Trib, the editorial board implies a Rays departure from St. Pete is imminent: "Because its attendance is the poorest in Major League Baseball, the Rays will not remain in Tropicana Field much longer, regardless of the lease with St. Petersburg."

That's a bold assumption given no track record of MLB teams breaking seemingly ironclad contracts.  But the Trib probably was right when it conceded, "Whatever compensation (St. Petersburg) negotiates, or is awarded, it likely will be much less than the value of keeping the Rays as a regional asset."

Which begs the question, "Do the City of St. Pete and Pinellas County owe it to Tampa Bay to give up the equity they've built in the Rays?"  And should the rest of Tampa Bay (i.e. Hillsborough Co.) pay them for it if they hop across the bay?






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Monday, April 2, 2018

All the Opening Weekend News You May Have Missed

Following a Thursday post about Stu Sternberg's latest stadium financing comments, and a Friday post about how the Rays were money behind the "grassroots" campaign for a new Tampa stadium...there was still plenty of opening weekend news to recap...so here ya go!
  1. HECK OF AN OPENER: The Rays opened up with an impressive 6-4 comeback win in front of what may be their only sellout crowd this season...only to lose the next three to Boston in nail-biting one-run fashion each.  If you like smallball and strategy, it was a great baseball series.
  2. WHO DAT? WTSP's Eric Glasser reports Rays fans started the season excited...but they don't have any clue who's in that bargain-basement lineup.
  3. TAMPA BAY TIMES FRUSTRATITORIAL:  As predicted, the Times' editorial board reminded us that hope springs eternal on opening day, but the stadium issue needs dealing with.  Its at least the ninth straight year they've written a similar editorial, but weirdly, this one seemed less urgent and doomsday-ish than the others.
  4. TOM JONES: "WHO IS PAYING FOR THE DARN THING?" It's a question this blog has been asking since 2010, so its nice everyone else in town is starting to catch on.
  5. PROPS TO THE TROP: To some, its lipstick on a pig; but to Frank Pastor, there are at least 20 unique reasons to love a trip to the Trop.
  6. PUBLIC SUBSIDY-BASHING: A conservative columnist, writing for the Washington Examiner, uses the Rays as the lead case for why cities should start saying "no" to more teams.
  7. TAMPA BAY 2020: Aside from the Rays money funding a chunk of their effort, I thought the businessmen behind the non-profit trying to lure the team to Tampa came across as sincere and putting their community first.  They make a convincing case for spending public resources on pro sports. But there's no shortage of coverage on that angle :)
  8. STORY THAT AGED WELL: Finally, I'm going to repost a 2017 Joe Henderson opening-weekend column about why the Rays are stuck between a rock and a hard place on the Stadium Saga. Hint: it's the same reason this blog has lamented about for years...neither MLB nor the Rays want to foot the bill.





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Friday, March 30, 2018

Rays Spending on PR Campaign, But Not on Curb Appeal

ST PETERSBURG, Fla. - Following questions from WTSP, code enforcement officials have notified the Tampa Bay Rays they are violating their contract with the city by failing to maintain their large billboard outside Tropicana Field.

The prominent board above the intersection of I-275 and I-175 serves as a welcome to both Tropicana Field and Downtown St. Petersburg. It displays a team logo, a pair of sponsors' logos, and a "St. Petersburg Welcomes You!" message.

But at night, the lack of maintenance is clear. Numerous lights on the sign appear to have been out for years and the video board is failing. Some of the fabric is torn, and some of the panels are detaching. The issues would appear to violate city code on upkeep of signage.

A spokesman for Mayor Rick Kriseman said the city has asked the Rays "numerous times" in recent years to fix the sign, but little had been done.

Prior to Thursday's season-opener, team president Brian Auld told 10News about $7 million in renovations that include new turf and concessions improvements. The team also spent more than $1 million on a 2014 renovation that made it easier for fans to get around the perimeter of the ballpark and visit concessions.

The Rays have said they spent more than $20 million on Trop improvements after Stu Sternberg took control of the team in 2005. Some of those funds have come from a joint maintenance account shared with the city.

But the outside appearance of Tropicana Field and its signage have gone largely unaddressed in recent years, bolstering the team's argument that the stadium is in need of replacement.

Critics of the team, including former St. Pete Mayor Bill Foster, have suggested the Rays have failed to properly invest in the area for the better part of the last decade since they started campaigning for a new home.

The Rays did not provide comment Friday, but a city official told WTSP the team had been contacted about the issue and promised to make the repairs.

A spokesman for Mayor Kriseman said the Rays have done an "exceptional job" of maintaining Tropicana Field otherwise.

"Grassroots" campaign in Tampa

Meanwhile, the grassroots group that’s trying to build business and community support for a new stadium across the bay, Tampa Bay Rays 2020, may not be so grassroots after all.

One of the group's founders told WTSP on Friday that the Rays have provided the main funding to the non-profit.

A pair of Tampa business leaders, Ron Christaldi and Chuck Sykes, are heading up the effort to secure pledges from local businesses to purchase tickets at the new stadium. Christaldi said the Rays have provided an undisclosed amount for - what appears to be - a healthy roster of public relations and marketing consultants who have been hired on behalf of the campaign

Christaldi said he was not receiving any compensation from the team but that his firm, Shumaker, Loop & Kendrick, had done some legal work for Tampa Bay Rays 2020. He did not say if any other attorneys at the firm had been contracted by the Rays.

Christaldi and Sykes spoke Friday morning at Cafe Con Tampa, a forum that addresses different local issues each week. Sykes said the two men got involved because they believe pro teams help bring together a community, and the opportunity to be proactive about bridging the Ybor City/Channelside corridors with development is a once-in-a-lifetime chance.

“Yes...investing in a new stadium will be risky," Christaldi said.  "But I’m betting on that risk myself."





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Thursday, March 29, 2018

Stu Sternberg is Willing to Spend Magic Fairy Dust Money on a New Stadium

I want to dive deeper into comments Stu Sternberg made at Thursday's opener, suggesting he'd open up his wallet a little wider if the Rays got a $25M/yr naming rights deal, similar to the Mets.

So generous! 

Except:
  1. The Mets' deal was worth $20M a year, not $25M;
  2. The Mets play in the No. 1 media market in the country;
  3. The Rays' current deal with Tropicana deal is reportedly worth just $1M a year, and its hard to imagine a new deal in the same market would be worth any more than $3-5M per year.
    1. CORRECTION: According to TampaBayRays2020 co-founder Chuck Sykes, the Rays are earning $3.5 million per year currently. 
  4. A number of teams reportedly seeking naming rights deals, such as the Marlins and Nats, haven't found anyone willing to meet their prices.
And on top of it all, Sternberg offered "to go halfsies" on a hypothetical $800M ballpark if a magical fairy dust CEO gave him that unprecedented naming rights deal.

Except Sternberg knows the ballpark will never cost $800 million.  NOTE: I have received quite a number of criticisms on this number - it is something I plan to continue to dive into. 





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