His front-page story about the Rays' recent attendance surge, attributes the team's recent uptick to a number of factors, but primarily the free "honor pass" given to active and veteran servicemembers:
Other factors are also likely bumping up crowds at the Trop such as cabin fever following the 11-day deluge of Tampa Bay that eased up a little for last weekend’s series against the Mets.Vrooman told O'Donnell the Rays can still clear $17.50 per fan from concessions, parking, and other revenues, even if the ticket was given away for free.
...
Attendance also has risen since the end of the Lightning’s playoff run to the Stanley Cup, and the team typically sees bigger crowds during July and August when school is out, said Michael Lortz, a freelance market analyst and author of the Tampa Bay Baseball Market blog.
Filling more empty seats makes economic sense for the Rays even if that means giving away tickets, said John Vrooman, a Vanderbilt University sports economist.
More fans coming through the turnstiles results in only marginal cost increases for the Rays such as extra turnstile operators or security staff. But the extra fans will significantly boost sales of concessions and parking revenue as well as improving the atmosphere inside the stadium.
Right now, the team's attendance sits at 15,902 fans per game - an 11% drop from the same time last year. But it's an 11% increase from the end of the Stanley Cup Playoffs two months ago:
Good news - you were all wrong. #Rays not in contention, but avg crowd still up 11% to 15,902. https://t.co/zxmuAm78On
— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) August 10, 2015
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Twitter
FOLLOW: Shadow of the Stadium on Facebook
A couple of questions:
ReplyDelete1. The announced attendance figures for games now include those who are attending for free via the Honor Pass program, right? Is the 'paid attendance' figure published anywhere?
2. The Christopher O'Donnell story states:
====================================
"Sales of beer, hotdogs and other foods brought in $8 million of the Rays total revenue of $175 million, a 2013 Bloomberg study found. Revenue from parking for the same year totaled $3 million, the 18th highest in MLB, the report states.
“The Rays can still clear about $17.50 per fan on concessions and other venue revenue even if the ticket is free,” Vrooman said."
=================================
Rays attendance for 2013 was 1,510,300. $17.50 x 1,510,300 = $26,430,250. Concessions of $8 million and parking of $3 million = $11 million. How does one reconcile these two figures?
Technically, free tickets should not be counted in official attendance. So we must assume that people are buying tickets to join an Honor Pass person that is coming for free.
DeleteThat may explain higher attendances due to Honor Pass.
Unless Rays or third party company buy tickets to cover all Honor Pass seats in order to increase attendance numbers.
Then should people that bought tix but didn't go "count"? Like when the Yanks announce over 40k when only 25-30k are really there?
DeleteYes, all season, Rays announced 10 000+ and there is lest than 8 000 in the stands. So tickets sold is the only measure.
DeleteThis is why:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mlbs-revenue-sharing-formula/
Free tickets do not traditionally count in MLB attendance numbers, but the Rays confirmed in the case of the "honor pass," they do.
DeleteAlso, since when is a sell-out crowd at the Trop considered to be Saturday’s sellout of 31,042 fans? Seriously? They've dropped the number of seats to 31K now> That's 12K less than capacity. What a farce!
ReplyDeleteAnd it's a lie to assume they clear $17.50 from each fan in attendance.
1. Kids and the elderly do not spend that much money.
2. Not every fan drives - so the assumption on revenues are wrong. Most vets would come as a group of people - 2-3 at least. So parking and concessions revenue will be at most 2/3 or 1/2 (if not less)
3. Not every fan will be duped in to buying over-priced food and warm beer at the Trop....
4. And while the additional attendance numbers help, the fact that they are not paying attendance (the Rays sponsored these freebies not a corporation who bought them and gave them away) this does not help the cause to build a new stadium
Here is the Trop. capacity over the years. In order to reduce the offer, seats are covered in order to maintain higher ticket prices and show higher % of seats occupancy.
Delete45,369 (1998)
44,027 (1999)
44,445 (2000)
43,772 (2002-2006)
38,437 (2007)
36,048 (2008)
35,041 (ALDS) / (ALCS)
40,947 (ALCS) / (WS)
36,973 (2009-2010)
34,078 (2011-2013)
31,042 (2014-present)
42,735 (without tarp-covered seats)
I have no problems with issuing free tickets to veterans. One think people should be aware of is some - and I don't know the percentage - of the military group are current season ticket holders. I've spoken with a few that have taken advantage of the opportunity for free entry because the Rays are seating them in better locations than they're currently paying for. My point is the new attendance numbers are quite possibly not as large as being promoted and a unknown percentage of these fans aren't really contributing anything new financially to the team. My guess is many of them are nothing more than attendance numbers.
ReplyDeleteWhat a bunch of haters! Regardless of the news, you guys always comment something negative...
ReplyDeleteGo play video games or something, leave the Rays alone, they been great for our region...
I can see it now, they win the WS, and the next day you guys would be commenting about the suspicion them using steroids & speculate about a fire-sale for next season...
It's really sad...
It's probably related to the title of this blog: "Shadow of the Stadium".
DeleteA blog with the title: "The Light of the Stadium" would probably have more positive comments on how to make it work rather than let's make sure we don't get screwed.
You can see the glass half empty or half full. It's all about perception and the angle we use to look/comments topics.
In Montreal, for years, we were in the shadow, for lots of good and bad reasons. Now, we are in the light, with constructive ideas to get a stadium and a team (expansion or relocation) with a common vision.
I feel that in Florida in general, the point of views are in the shadow for good reasons (based on all the comments and critics I read so far). But there is hope, light at the end of the tunnel. As long as the mindset of all the parties (fans, governments, companies, sports owners, ...) are aligned with common vision and values.
But this is not simple, it takes time, it takes leadership, it takes stakeholders with a clear vision. No just "take that to the bank" statements.
So back to my original question on this thread:
Delete1. The announced attendance figures for games now include those who are attending for free via the Honor Pass program, right? Is the 'paid attendance' figure published anywhere?
2. The Christopher O'Donnell story states:
====================================
"Sales of beer, hotdogs and other foods brought in $8 million of the Rays total revenue of $175 million, a 2013 Bloomberg study found. Revenue from parking for the same year totaled $3 million, the 18th highest in MLB, the report states.
“The Rays can still clear about $17.50 per fan on concessions and other venue revenue even if the ticket is free,” Vrooman said."
=================================
Rays attendance for 2013 was 1,510,300. $17.50 x 1,510,300 = $26,430,250. Concessions of $8 million and parking of $3 million = $11 million. How does one reconcile these two figures?
Can anyone shed light on these?
Thanks
1. Announced attendances are paid tickets. Real butts in the seats is not published unless it's 31 042.
Delete2. Journalists are rarely good with numbers. A journalist must always have 2 data sources in order to validate an information like an accountant will always cross-reference the numbers to make sure they balance.
When it's time to published numbers, journalists rarely cross-validate them. They don't really care.
Does Maths courses are part of a journalist education curriculum?
Hi Anonymous@August 11, 2015 at 8:02 PM
DeleteSo when I look at the attendance figure in the box score of a game, are you saying that unless the game is sold out, then the attendance figure is paid tickets, and if the game is sold out, then the attendance figure is real butts in the seat? If so, when a game is sold out, how does one determine the actual seats sold?
As I wrote, MLB team are reporting ticket sold only. So when it's full, it's because they sold all tickets (they disclose them as sold ones).
DeleteBased on 2015 attendance per game, there are at least 8K to 10K pre-sold tickets for every game (season tickets). The attendance was never under such number so far.
That does not mean those 8K to 10K are going to the game. If Rays sell 5K additional tickets and only 4K of season tickets holders are going to the game, total attendance could be up to 15K, but only 9K in the stadium.
Then, add the Honor Pass and other free tickets, you could have 10K-11K butts in the stadium for an official crowd of 15K.
When you have 31 042, you are almost sure that all tickets were sold or were accounted as being sold.
Just read what TBBaseballMarket post about Honors Pass. The example is not right.
DeleteAll make sense then. Rays are consider those tickets as sold (maybe from a marketing budget or a sponsor that is paying for those tickets in some way).
"When you have 31 042, you are almost sure that all tickets were sold or were accounted as being sold."
DeleteAnd that's the key - that they were accounted for as having been distributed. Doesn't mean that there were 31,042 fans in attendance.
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/the-official-attendance-can-become-empty-of-meaning/?_r=0
http://www.latimes.com/la-sp-attendance-082305-story.html#page=1
In all those attendance numbers, remember the sharing revenue impact.
Delete"In addition, a chunk of MLB’s Central Fund — made up of revenues from sources like national broadcast contracts — is disproportionately allocated to teams based on their relative revenues, so lower-revenue teams get a bigger piece of the pie."
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mlbs-revenue-sharing-formula/
A team like the Rays need more money to cover the lost of attendance revenues at home. Once that said, after years of declining attendances (increase of shared revenues from MLB), they need to manage the level of the attendance because if the fall is too steep, other teams will start putting pressure on the Rays. They all want a share of the pie, but if some teams are always getting a bigger share and don't attract fans in their home stadium (Rays are at the bottom in road game attendance and % of stadium attendance), MLB owners will ask questions.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance
So yes, attendance count, and not only in the home stadium, on the road also. Other teams don't want to have an empty stadium because the away team sucks (or fan have a perception that this team sucks).
When the Florida Panthers are playing in Montreal, I can tell you that the crowd is not the same and in the past, it was a game that was not exciting at all. And I can tell you that the drop in concessions/boutiques revenues for such game is quite important compared to a game against Boston or NY the same night. Up to 40%.
Yes. Honors Pass attendees count according to the Rays. See answer to this tweet. https://twitter.com/PrTwain/status/629796525913309184
ReplyDeleteTBBaseballMarket,
ReplyDeleteThanks for clarifying my attendance question.
Still have one remaining question:
The Christopher O'Donnell story states:
====================================
"Sales of beer, hotdogs and other foods brought in $8 million of the Rays total revenue of $175 million, a 2013 Bloomberg study found. Revenue from parking for the same year totaled $3 million, the 18th highest in MLB, the report states.
“The Rays can still clear about $17.50 per fan on concessions and other venue revenue even if the ticket is free,” Vrooman said."
=================================
Rays attendance for 2013 was 1,510,300. $17.50 x 1,510,300 = $26,430,250. Concessions of $8 million and parking of $3 million = $11 million. How does one reconcile these two figures?
You must add souvenirs and gears revenue that are probably included into the 17.50$.
DeleteHowever, $15M gap cannot be explained only by these sales.
@scott - the funny math is notorious in baseball - but it's easy to reconcile conceptually when you realise
ReplyDelete1. that not every single attendee will spend the average of $17.50
2. that the average number reported is the average number of tickets "sold" or given away and accounted for that game but it does not mean that that was the actual number of attendees.
J Loria several years ago pulled a fast one to play the attendance game - there were about 4,000 people at the last home game physically, yet he "bought" over 15,000 -20,000 tickets using Marlins' money to boost reported attendance figures so as to not be the dead last team in attendance that year. I forget which year, but it was shortly after he took over the Marlins
And that's a strategy that the Rays are probably using. Funding free tickets by buying them with marketing funds or a third party (sponsor that in exchange of X$ will have exposure and receive free tickets for their clients).
DeleteHonors Pass is an example and there's probably other initiatives going on that we don't know.
One thing is sure, considering the really weak attendance results before June, something needed to be done in the most importants months of the season to reduce the attendance decrease.
And no, Mark Fernandez, Rays Senior Vice President of Marketing did not resigned in June just to have some good time during summer with his family. Numbers were so bad in April and May, outlook was probably not good, managing a free ticket strategy is not what a Senior VP is expecting after so many years of attendance decline.
Those attendance increases were from Met fans that clearly outnumbered the cheap and lazy fan base of this market for those 3 games last weekend and another game or two with campers this summer that spiked the crowds.
ReplyDeleteIt is a shame, I had a good time at the Saturday night game. There is a huge difference of when there is 8,000 people in there vs. a "full" house. There was energy and electricity in the ballpark, a far cry from the "watching paint dry" atmosphere that normally is the case in there.
I guess it really depends on the market itself when it comes to atmosphere. When I saw David Price's return to Tropicana Field with the Tigers last year, attendance was announced as around 18,000, and it was an exciting game, with the Rays winning despite having just one hit. However, it was really quiet, and I feel that the Dome only amplified that. On the other hand, when I saw the Rays in Chicago last week, there were only 16,000 fans, but the difference was noticeable. The fans were really into the game and it created a great atmosphere. Maybe it was because the game was back and forth with lots of offence, as opposed to a pitcher's duel, maybe not.
DeleteEither way, both games were tame compared to the game I took in at Miller Park last Wednesday. The Brewers are a team that is out of it, entering a rebuilding phase, and overall have had less success in 45 seasons than the Rays in 17, but the fan base is rabid for them. Nearly 25K showed up that night for a throwaway game against the Padres. And this is in a stadium that isn't close to downtown with no surrounding shops or restaurants. Plus they have to deal with the Cubs and White Sox down the road, instead of just a bridge with heavy traffic from Tampa to St Pete. And they are the smallest markets in MLB. By no means is this my way of saying "yay Milwaukee" or "boo Rays" but rather what is it they are doing that makes them so important to their fans as opposed to the Rays in the Tampa Bay region? The funny thing is, in the program for that evening's game was an entire article about Miller Park, and specifically all the hurdles that they went through to get it built in the first place. What really struck me was the first statement which was something to the effect of, at the time, people wondered why they needed to move, and 14 seasons later they ask, what took them so long? Locals I spoke with seemed to be pretty proud of the place. Surely it is not unrealistic to think that the right stadium in the right location would be of the same benefit for Rays fans, evoking the same pride?
The politicians in St Pete are only interested in ROI on a stadium - not a feel good factor for the fans, team or anything not measurable by $ and metrics.
Deletematt don't you worry. announcement coming very soon about ybor stadium! You can take that to the bank!
DeleteVery soon? I thought it was this week. Time's ticking away...
Delete"Take that to the bank" was formal: this week was the week.
DeleteI predict a downtown stadium announcement in Montreal before the Rays can even announce that they pick a site that is "Pitch Perfect"!
Ha.
DeleteDon't forget the economy is doing better here and people have more money in their pocket. Still expect a move to Tampa in the near future.
ReplyDeleteWhere is "here"?
DeleteAnd, of course, everything is in the "near future"
Hey - "You can take that to the bank!" dude - where's that Ybor announcement?
ReplyDeleteHe's probably too drunk celebrating the Ybor announcement to answer this thread!
DeleteMust have been a Rays kind of sell out crowd at the Ybor party
DeleteIf I had a penny for every promise made since 2008 about an imminent stadium announcement of consequence....I wouldn't be writing a blog anymore!
DeleteSo, where is "You can take that to the bank!" dude?????
ReplyDeleteWhere's the Ybor announcement?
I am shocked and disappointed that no such announcement was made. To lower my despair, I searched the internet for related articles, as surely someone aside from our Anonymous friend would have scooped such a major story but could find none. I am disheartened, as I was supposed to take this to the bank, and now I don't know where to take it.
DeleteMaybe you just aren't good at searching the internet? Ha.
DeleteOr just maybe said news DOESN'T exist
DeleteTake it to Greece!
ReplyDelete