Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Braves Look at Pinellas; Are Rays Very Lucky? or Very Smart?

On Day 1, it's the stadium-related headlines. On Day 2, everyone tries to break down what it means. (Actually, I try to do that on Day 1 too, but I digress...)  Anyway, Braves/Rays speculative headlines abound today.

Wouldn't it be brilliant if the Rays & MLB came up with the Braves-to-Toytown proposal in order to create the kind of leverage they weren't able to create via a St. Pete/Tampa tug-of-war?

MLB rules prohibit spring training stadiums and big-league stadiums from infringing upon each other...without permission.  So there's no way the Braves got this involved in a Toytown spring training proposal without consulting MLB & the Rays.
CORRECTION: The Tampa Bay Times reports this does not apply to spring training ballparks.

That could mean one of three things:
  1. The Rays & MLB are assuming the Rays will be gone from Tampa Bay in a decade or so, thus diminishing any negative impact of a Braves spring training relocation. In fact, it could be positioned as a consolation prize for Pinellas County.
  2. The Rays & MLB want to stay in Tampa Bay, but are using the pressure on Pinellas County's limited tourist tax bonding capacity to force St. Pete's hand.  Forced to make a decision about where bed tax revenues would be best-spent, the city could allow the Rays permission to begin negotiating for new stadium sites.
  3. The Rays & MLB want a taxpayer-funded stadium at Toytown and - unable to negotiate with Pinellas County right now - the Rays have coordinated with the Braves, MLB, and developers to orchestrate a bait-and-switch.  The proposed 10,000-seat stadium becomes a 25,000-seat stadium and the Rays move closer to the bay bridges.  The Braves could even share Bright House Networks Field in Clearwater without major expenditures.
Option 3 is a longshot; but all three theories mean a considerable bump in leverage for the Rays as they continue to push for a new stadium.

The team, of course, had no comment this week.   St. Pete councilmembers tell me they were caught a little off-guard by the Braves news, but it didn't have a big impact on where they stood.

But county commissioners, who have the job of deciding where those bed tax dollars go, may have their hands full in upcoming months trying to sort out all the outside interests.






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30 comments:

  1. "1. The Rays & MLB are assuming the Rays will be gone from Tampa Bay in a decade or so, thus diminishing any negative impact of a Braves spring training relocation. In fact, it could be positioned as a consolation prize for Pinellas County."

    So, do the Braves know something about the Rays' future?

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    1. I'm sure the Braves owner call Sternberg (and Manfred) before the intention letter was signed by the president. This is not a project that took few hours to settle and negotiate even if it's just work in progress.

      When Sternberg says the clock is ticking and he will not sit down and wait until 2023 to see if a new stadium will be built, it is not just words in the air.

      Finally, when the mayor of Montreal says numerous times publicly it's not IF but WHEN MLB will be back, again this is not words just for fun. Coderre is a very experienced politician that delivered in the past. So this is a serious message to make sure things will move on.

      What we are seing here is MLB teams that can't sit down and wait until St-Pete council is ready to make a move. The show must go on and if the TB region is not able to make it work (supporting the Rays), then the region is a Pitch Perfect destination for all the other teams.

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    2. I do think the major decision makers know how this will play out, but everything is being kept under wraps to maintain the value of the Rays. If everyone knows they are leaving, say in 2018, then why would you bother spending money on the team now? St Pete council will finally vote the way the mayor wants because as each year goes by, they are getting less and less compensation.

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    3. I agree, Matt. The major decision makers as well as the owner of the Rays pretty much know where this is going.

      Let's see, $662 million investment in a garbage dump which estimates annual revenues of more than $800 million, including rooms in new lodging on the site and fees from hosting tournaments beyond spring training. The plan promises to create 3,361 jobs and inject $31 million annually into county coffers through increased tax revenue.

      Redeveloping the Trop site and generating several hundreds of million dollars in revenue why on earth would St Pete even try to keep the Rays for the alleged $10-20Mn of revenue they bring?

      Allons-y!

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  2. I don't know, but why a minor league team want to compete against other games in town opposed to being the only game in town. I lived in Ocala for years, and would think a team like the Braves right up i75 could do well in a town like that, or maybe in Citrus co., the Villages, Naples, ect.(?)...

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    1. Because there's money in it!

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    2. No shit "there's money in it", I would think that a baseball team would make more in a place like Ocala then an area with 5 other baseball teams...
      Though the Yanks tried moving there, and neither wanted to spend much money on a stadium, lol!

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    3. Your biggest mistaken assumption is baseball teams are made-or-broken these days by attendance. Braves would rather sell 8k tickets a game in St. Pete, where everything is convenient, rather than 10k tickets a game in Ocala.

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  3. Its sad low class St.Pete wouldn't let them move to Tampa. What a useless city.

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    1. Well, we'll see what Stu does come November - he must be furious at St Pete's incompetence.... although, I think he's in on the Braves' move to the area so he can get out and start speaking Franglais

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  4. Montréal ne sera pas obtenir une équipe des ligues majeures de baseball! Vous pouvez prendre cela à la banque !

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    1. What a poor translation in French. Pathétique!

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    2. Ok, that actually made me laugh. It gave me flashbacks to morons in our French class looking up every word in their French-English dictionaries, and the teachers laughing at them. Sadly, my French skills have deteriorated over the years, but I'd gladly take a class if it meant I could watch Expos games for extra credit. On the other hand, with Loria gone, we would actually have broadcasts in both languages again!

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  5. This will just help the case for the Rays to pack it in early from the Tampa Bay area....

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    1. Finally someone who acknowledges that the Rays' days are numbered in Fla....

      http://tomahawktake.com/2015/09/24/braves-have-everything-to-gain-rays-everything-to-lose-via-new-spring-site/

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  6. This baseball themed soap opera is starting to heat up, and the Tampa Bay area is center stage! We have over 5 teams as lead actors, while many other places in America wish they had even 1!

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    1. Perhaps North America. Check out the bottom of this article on Pete Rose:
      http://m.mlb.com/news/article/151407350/rob-manfred-pete-rose-decision-by-end-of-year

      With US TV markets being so important tot he bottom line, teams are going to fight like hell to maintain their territories, making cities like Portland, San Antonio, or Charlotte difficult. Manfred basically eliminated Vegas from the discussion. We all know Montreal is a lock, but Mexico seems to have more traction that I thought. I'll have to do some research on owners, locations etc. The sticking point is STILL on the Rays though. Manfred knows there is money to be made from expansion, and I'm sure he wants to add his own legacy to the mix as well. Nothing can move forward until the Rays figure out a way out of the MOU. Surely if it is holding up progress, MLB might not sit idly by much longer.

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    2. Which is probably why the ST facility being proposed by the Braves was "approved" by MLB and the Rays - to force movement in the Rays stadium stalemate and pave the way out of FLA for them once and for all...

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    3. Complete interview with Manfred on expansion and situation in Oakland and TB.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=3&v=KEpM5eqLE54

      Manfred is going to Mexico soon. Lots of interest.

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    4. Not sure about the last statement in this article:

      http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/local/2015/09/25/real-reasons--real-numbers-behind-tampa-bay-rays-attendance-empty-seats/72788798/

      "Jones told me the Rays are not doomed to leave Tampa Bay, but they need solutions to manage all of these challenges, and soon"

      Especially given the answer to this question:

      "So will the Rays fix all of their problems if they move to a new home? Not easily."

      The answer is obvious... the Rays need to move out of Fla.

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    5. Very interesting article Anonymous. Probably the best summary.

      MLBAM is offering extended features as part of Apple TV 4 and mobile devices and teams are getting their share of money on this side. However, even if electronic devices and TV are a huge competitor to attendances, teams better have full smaller stadiums with great scenery view for this electronic revenue channel.

      It's all about entertainment and full stadium with fans cheering is mandatory in my mind. When Habs are playing hockey on the road in front of empty seats, this is not good for the sport even if the teams are profitable.

      Reducing ticket price is one way to fill the seats as long as the location is good and the fan base is ready to go to the stadium.

      The only problem that was not address is the number of season tickets AND the business community support. This is key to increase not only the attendance number (tickets sold) but people that will go to the game with those tickets. Rays must be a prime event where people will look for tickets (from corporation or resell market), not the other way around (Rays looking for people to buy tickets).

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    6. I Agree, however, the Rays WERE a prime event from 2008-2013, but still maintained the worst attendance numbers. They were clinching the AL East against the Yankees, and still had trouble filling the Trop.

      As you know, you only have to look at teams like Toronto, Pittsburgh, or Kansas City, that went an average of 2 decades since their last postseason appearances, that have suddenly spiked in attendance now that the teams are good. The fact that this didn't really happen for the Rays indicates an issue with the market itself.

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  7. BREAKING NEWS:

    Major League Baseball issued the following statement this morning:

    “Earlier this week, Major League Baseball and the Tampa Bay Rays learned of the St. Petersburg Sports Park proposal for the first time. Major League Baseball appreciates the support that it has received for the construction of Spring Training facilities throughout the State of Florida. The most pressing need, however, is the construction of a Major League-quality facility for the Rays.

    “Major League Baseball is committed to working with the Rays to secure a new ballpark in cooperation with the Tampa Bay region. This can only happen with the support of local political and business leaders.”

    Check back for more on this breaking story.


    Interesting... the power play has begun.... Braves vs Rays ... given the choice, my guess is there are more Braves and Yankees fans in Tampa than there are Rays fans....

    What folks also forget is that if the Rays push for a stadium in Tampa, the Yankees' ST/MiL facility is there... pushing them out due to territorial rights will not be a popular move in the area

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    1. In french we say: "Coup de théâtre!".

      I would love to be in the meeting between the Braves, the Rays and MLB on this topic. Does the other MLB teams are starting to play more agressively with the Rays?

      Does the Emergency fund allocating money for perpetual unprofitable teams (like the Rays) is strating to be concern by the profitable teams?

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  8. A 25-year-long tumor. Cut out the cancer before it spreads. Tired of hearing about this trash franchise and their stadium problems. I have not been to a game this season because I am bored of their BS.

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  9. Noah, your option 3, really doesn't make that much sense to me:

    "3. The Rays & MLB want a taxpayer-funded stadium at Toytown and - unable to negotiate with Pinellas County right now - the Rays have coordinated with the Braves, MLB, and developers to orchestrate a bait-and-switch. The proposed 10,000-seat stadium becomes a 25,000-seat stadium and the Rays move closer to the bay bridges. The Braves could even share Bright House Networks Field in Clearwater without major expenditures."


    Why would the Rays be interested in a bait and switch play when

    1. St Pete has already stated that they will help build a stadium in the county (by refusing the Rays to look to Tampa or elsewhere), and,

    2. The Rays have gone on record that they want OUT of St Pete/Pinellas County?

    3. A 25,000 seat stadium would not bring any economic advantages to the Rays...

    Curious to hear your perspective, Noah.

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    1. Because the Rays don't get any of it without creating leverage first. They aren't even allowed to talk to Pinellas County about a baseball stadium at Toytown...but the Braves are.

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    2. But the Rays want OUT of St Pete/Pinellas County - you haven't commented on that major point

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    3. They haven't said that. Neither has MLB. Pure assumptions.

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  10. Stu has said that St Pete is NOT suitable....

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